Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Too Busy to Post...

Hey, my apologies for not posting a note sooner. I've been so busy trying to keep track of this volatility in the markets and my positions that I've put posting to this blog on the back burner. When things calm down some and I start seeing more traditional stock setups, I'll resume posting. When that is depends when we finally wiggle around enough to resume some kind of identifiable trend in the indexes.

Keep checking back for posts of new ideas when you have a spare moment.

Thursday, July 26, 2007

So Maybe I'm NOT crazy...

Two days ago I said that we could see 1450-1460 in the SPX. Today we saw 1465.30, awfully close to that range. Remember however that the 200 day MA is at about 1447 and if you draw a trend line on the weekly chart (depending on how you draw it) it's at about that level also. So, while we had a huge washout today, and some positive news could send us bouncing up some, I won't be surprised to see that level, or at a minimum retest today's lows, in the next week or two. Having said that, I could be totally wrong and we just creep (or fly) up from here.

Regardless, I sat tight on my short SPX put positions, which went hard against me today but never went anywhere near my 1400 strike level. So, as I like to tell Brian, "they're gonna have to come and get me" if they want to force me to roll the the puts down to a lower strike and out to a later expiration. We'll see, and if it comes to that, it won't be the first time, but in the end, I get my money!

In the mean time, I won't be posting ideas until things settle down a bit. If you want one idea, sell some short-term, far out-of-the-money puts on one of the indexes on a retest of today's lows.

Until sanity returns, good luck!

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Summer Time and the Trading Isn't so Easy

At least if you were long the market today it wasn't easy! I was long QID from yesterday afternoon, and like a dork, sold on the gap up this morning and made up my mind we weren't going down too far today. Duh! Shoulda kept watching it carefully. Instead I was looking for a bounce in a few bullish stocks, not the best strategy when the markets are down around 2%.

This movement will, however, create a wonderful opportunity to sell SPX puts to people who are late to the option buying party. So, I put an initial position on today, and will sit with both patience and intensity (like a hungry cat in the wild) waiting for the moment when the premiums are so ridiculous and the fear so great that I can sell short term SPX puts for far more than they're worth...then sit back and watch them expire in my favor. Timing is KEY however, so patience is in order. This market, while generally bullish, could surprise us and go down a lot further. Do I hear 1450/1460 anyone? I doubt it, but as I always say, what do I know?

This isn't the best time to be offering up long ideas, but here are a few for tomorrow; maybe we'll get lucky:

CRTX above 2.26
SGMO above 9.90
WRSP above 5.18

If you're really gutsy, watch TWTI and GGBM for entries also. Don't forget to use stops, and don't forget to check earnings/news also, I haven't checked yet.

While there are many terrible looking charts out there right now (the majority of what I looked at this afternoon) I don't see short opps that I feel comfortable with mentioning. I do think HHGP could setup for a trade, but it might take some time.

Good luck Wednesday!

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Summer Time and the Liv'in is Easy...

I'm off to Mammoth mountain with my family and friends for a long weekend starting Wednesday 7/18, so I won't be posting anything until after trading on Monday 7/23. Don't get me wrong, I like to post ideas...but hey, fun is calling! A guy has to have his priorities, right?!!

Hopefully you have a great few days of trading while I'm enjoying the mountains in the summertime. If you see a great trade, trade it for me and send the money ;)

Sunday, July 15, 2007

Trade Ideas for 7/16/2007

I know, I know...another late Sunday post. Busy, busy, busy.

Ideas for Monday:

AKRX above 7.00
CVTX above 13.15
CYPB above 13.60
EMIS above 4.86
IRIS above 16.55

And if MVIS can get above 5.10 I think it can get going. I squeezed a nice little trade out of this one late Friday :)

I should point out that I see so many bullish charts that, in combination with the market seeming to be extended and with earnings season in full swing early this week, I am skeptical about how good things look.

I haven't checked earnings dates yet, so be sure to do that before you consider a trade. Good luck!

Thursday, July 12, 2007

Trade Ideas for 7/13/2007

So WTF was that? Geez. Gap down Tuesday, gap up Thursday to new record levels? I got long lots of GE...and was stopped out just before the real run up. Freaking POS. I had it right...other than the timing. Direction = Easy; Timing = Not Easy.

Here are a few ideas for Friday the 13th. Should we remember that date given what just happened? Heck if I know..

ARGN above 19.60
BIOS above 4.99
CVTX above 13.15
HDY above 3.05
LAVA above 14.35

MWA looks interesting again also.

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Trade Ideas for 7/12/2007

Had an OK day, not great, not bad. Lots of volatility out there. Looks like I'll have a pile of short SPX puts expiring worthless next week (I love it when that happens!).

A few ideas for tomorrow (check the news; I haven't yet):

HDY above 3.05
PRXI above 16.90 (looks good; I'm long already)
QCOM above 43.95 (IF...MKT is strong)
SPEC above 17.03 (thin)

Good luck as always.

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Trade Ideas for 7/10/2007

While I didn't mention it in yesterday's post, I took off most of my energy plays during the strength yesterday...which turned out to be a good move. Whew!

Things will be a bit more tricky now, but I do have a few ideas for you to take a look at. Just remember that with the volatility in the markets, whipsaw action is more likely. Here are some that I like for Wednesday:

EMIS above 4.94
HDY above 3.02
MWA above 16.50
PRST above 16.31 (there was a fantastic trade in this one today)

On the short side:

RMBS on weakness after a rally to the 18.00 area
ROST on weakness after a rally to the 30.40-30.50 area

Good Luck!

Monday, July 9, 2007

Trade Ideas for 7/10/2007

Aaahhhh! I love it when trades go my way. I had the most excellent trades today in CYPB and HOKU. Nice! By the way, both of those charts still look really good if you can find a low-risk entry point. I know I'll be watching them again tomorrow. I nailed HOKU last Friday also :)

For Tuesday I like:

AATI above 9.90
AKRX above 7.01 (thin)
OMNI above 11.45
OMTR above 22.56
PRST above 8.12

I'm also watching ASYT because it was pointed out on http://squeezeshorts.blogspot.com and looks ready to fly.

Good luck tomorrow!

Sunday, July 8, 2007

Trade Ideas for 7/9/2007

The market is probably extended a bit due to the upward movement last week, but that doesn't mean it can't keep moving up. Lots of charts look bullish to me, so here are a handful of long ideas:

COGT above 14.91
DEPO above 4.96
DSTI above 6.30
LAVA above 14.31
LPHI above 35.00 (thin)
OMTR above 22.50

That's probably enough to get interested Monday morning. Good luck!

Sunday, July 1, 2007

Trade Ideas for 7/2/2007

Well I procrastinated this weekend and have just finished putting together my watch lists for tomorrow. Rather than just give you a few, today I'm posting my three primary lists in their entirety: Long ideas, Short Ideas, and my B-list ideas. I'm not giving specific entry points today, but generally will on a daily basis. Quite a few of these look good, but I do expect some low volume, choppy trading during this holiday week that precedes the kick off of earnings season.

Good Luck!