Hey, my apologies for not posting a note sooner. I've been so busy trying to keep track of this volatility in the markets and my positions that I've put posting to this blog on the back burner. When things calm down some and I start seeing more traditional stock setups, I'll resume posting. When that is depends when we finally wiggle around enough to resume some kind of identifiable trend in the indexes.
Keep checking back for posts of new ideas when you have a spare moment.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Thursday, July 26, 2007
So Maybe I'm NOT crazy...
Two days ago I said that we could see 1450-1460 in the SPX. Today we saw 1465.30, awfully close to that range. Remember however that the 200 day MA is at about 1447 and if you draw a trend line on the weekly chart (depending on how you draw it) it's at about that level also. So, while we had a huge washout today, and some positive news could send us bouncing up some, I won't be surprised to see that level, or at a minimum retest today's lows, in the next week or two. Having said that, I could be totally wrong and we just creep (or fly) up from here.
Regardless, I sat tight on my short SPX put positions, which went hard against me today but never went anywhere near my 1400 strike level. So, as I like to tell Brian, "they're gonna have to come and get me" if they want to force me to roll the the puts down to a lower strike and out to a later expiration. We'll see, and if it comes to that, it won't be the first time, but in the end, I get my money!
In the mean time, I won't be posting ideas until things settle down a bit. If you want one idea, sell some short-term, far out-of-the-money puts on one of the indexes on a retest of today's lows.
Until sanity returns, good luck!
Regardless, I sat tight on my short SPX put positions, which went hard against me today but never went anywhere near my 1400 strike level. So, as I like to tell Brian, "they're gonna have to come and get me" if they want to force me to roll the the puts down to a lower strike and out to a later expiration. We'll see, and if it comes to that, it won't be the first time, but in the end, I get my money!
In the mean time, I won't be posting ideas until things settle down a bit. If you want one idea, sell some short-term, far out-of-the-money puts on one of the indexes on a retest of today's lows.
Until sanity returns, good luck!
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Summer Time and the Trading Isn't so Easy
At least if you were long the market today it wasn't easy! I was long QID from yesterday afternoon, and like a dork, sold on the gap up this morning and made up my mind we weren't going down too far today. Duh! Shoulda kept watching it carefully. Instead I was looking for a bounce in a few bullish stocks, not the best strategy when the markets are down around 2%.
This movement will, however, create a wonderful opportunity to sell SPX puts to people who are late to the option buying party. So, I put an initial position on today, and will sit with both patience and intensity (like a hungry cat in the wild) waiting for the moment when the premiums are so ridiculous and the fear so great that I can sell short term SPX puts for far more than they're worth...then sit back and watch them expire in my favor. Timing is KEY however, so patience is in order. This market, while generally bullish, could surprise us and go down a lot further. Do I hear 1450/1460 anyone? I doubt it, but as I always say, what do I know?
This isn't the best time to be offering up long ideas, but here are a few for tomorrow; maybe we'll get lucky:
CRTX above 2.26
SGMO above 9.90
WRSP above 5.18
If you're really gutsy, watch TWTI and GGBM for entries also. Don't forget to use stops, and don't forget to check earnings/news also, I haven't checked yet.
While there are many terrible looking charts out there right now (the majority of what I looked at this afternoon) I don't see short opps that I feel comfortable with mentioning. I do think HHGP could setup for a trade, but it might take some time.
Good luck Wednesday!
This movement will, however, create a wonderful opportunity to sell SPX puts to people who are late to the option buying party. So, I put an initial position on today, and will sit with both patience and intensity (like a hungry cat in the wild) waiting for the moment when the premiums are so ridiculous and the fear so great that I can sell short term SPX puts for far more than they're worth...then sit back and watch them expire in my favor. Timing is KEY however, so patience is in order. This market, while generally bullish, could surprise us and go down a lot further. Do I hear 1450/1460 anyone? I doubt it, but as I always say, what do I know?
This isn't the best time to be offering up long ideas, but here are a few for tomorrow; maybe we'll get lucky:
CRTX above 2.26
SGMO above 9.90
WRSP above 5.18
If you're really gutsy, watch TWTI and GGBM for entries also. Don't forget to use stops, and don't forget to check earnings/news also, I haven't checked yet.
While there are many terrible looking charts out there right now (the majority of what I looked at this afternoon) I don't see short opps that I feel comfortable with mentioning. I do think HHGP could setup for a trade, but it might take some time.
Good luck Wednesday!
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Summer Time and the Liv'in is Easy...
I'm off to Mammoth mountain with my family and friends for a long weekend starting Wednesday 7/18, so I won't be posting anything until after trading on Monday 7/23. Don't get me wrong, I like to post ideas...but hey, fun is calling! A guy has to have his priorities, right?!!
Hopefully you have a great few days of trading while I'm enjoying the mountains in the summertime. If you see a great trade, trade it for me and send the money ;)
Hopefully you have a great few days of trading while I'm enjoying the mountains in the summertime. If you see a great trade, trade it for me and send the money ;)
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Trade Ideas for 7/16/2007
I know, I know...another late Sunday post. Busy, busy, busy.
Ideas for Monday:
AKRX above 7.00
CVTX above 13.15
CYPB above 13.60
EMIS above 4.86
IRIS above 16.55
And if MVIS can get above 5.10 I think it can get going. I squeezed a nice little trade out of this one late Friday :)
I should point out that I see so many bullish charts that, in combination with the market seeming to be extended and with earnings season in full swing early this week, I am skeptical about how good things look.
I haven't checked earnings dates yet, so be sure to do that before you consider a trade. Good luck!
Ideas for Monday:
AKRX above 7.00
CVTX above 13.15
CYPB above 13.60
EMIS above 4.86
IRIS above 16.55
And if MVIS can get above 5.10 I think it can get going. I squeezed a nice little trade out of this one late Friday :)
I should point out that I see so many bullish charts that, in combination with the market seeming to be extended and with earnings season in full swing early this week, I am skeptical about how good things look.
I haven't checked earnings dates yet, so be sure to do that before you consider a trade. Good luck!
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Trade Ideas for 7/13/2007
So WTF was that? Geez. Gap down Tuesday, gap up Thursday to new record levels? I got long lots of GE...and was stopped out just before the real run up. Freaking POS. I had it right...other than the timing. Direction = Easy; Timing = Not Easy.
Here are a few ideas for Friday the 13th. Should we remember that date given what just happened? Heck if I know..
ARGN above 19.60
BIOS above 4.99
CVTX above 13.15
HDY above 3.05
LAVA above 14.35
MWA looks interesting again also.
Here are a few ideas for Friday the 13th. Should we remember that date given what just happened? Heck if I know..
ARGN above 19.60
BIOS above 4.99
CVTX above 13.15
HDY above 3.05
LAVA above 14.35
MWA looks interesting again also.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Trade Ideas for 7/12/2007
Had an OK day, not great, not bad. Lots of volatility out there. Looks like I'll have a pile of short SPX puts expiring worthless next week (I love it when that happens!).
A few ideas for tomorrow (check the news; I haven't yet):
HDY above 3.05
PRXI above 16.90 (looks good; I'm long already)
QCOM above 43.95 (IF...MKT is strong)
SPEC above 17.03 (thin)
Good luck as always.
A few ideas for tomorrow (check the news; I haven't yet):
HDY above 3.05
PRXI above 16.90 (looks good; I'm long already)
QCOM above 43.95 (IF...MKT is strong)
SPEC above 17.03 (thin)
Good luck as always.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Trade Ideas for 7/10/2007
While I didn't mention it in yesterday's post, I took off most of my energy plays during the strength yesterday...which turned out to be a good move. Whew!
Things will be a bit more tricky now, but I do have a few ideas for you to take a look at. Just remember that with the volatility in the markets, whipsaw action is more likely. Here are some that I like for Wednesday:
EMIS above 4.94
HDY above 3.02
MWA above 16.50
PRST above 16.31 (there was a fantastic trade in this one today)
On the short side:
RMBS on weakness after a rally to the 18.00 area
ROST on weakness after a rally to the 30.40-30.50 area
Good Luck!
Things will be a bit more tricky now, but I do have a few ideas for you to take a look at. Just remember that with the volatility in the markets, whipsaw action is more likely. Here are some that I like for Wednesday:
EMIS above 4.94
HDY above 3.02
MWA above 16.50
PRST above 16.31 (there was a fantastic trade in this one today)
On the short side:
RMBS on weakness after a rally to the 18.00 area
ROST on weakness after a rally to the 30.40-30.50 area
Good Luck!
Monday, July 9, 2007
Trade Ideas for 7/10/2007
Aaahhhh! I love it when trades go my way. I had the most excellent trades today in CYPB and HOKU. Nice! By the way, both of those charts still look really good if you can find a low-risk entry point. I know I'll be watching them again tomorrow. I nailed HOKU last Friday also :)
For Tuesday I like:
AATI above 9.90
AKRX above 7.01 (thin)
OMNI above 11.45
OMTR above 22.56
PRST above 8.12
I'm also watching ASYT because it was pointed out on http://squeezeshorts.blogspot.com and looks ready to fly.
Good luck tomorrow!
For Tuesday I like:
AATI above 9.90
AKRX above 7.01 (thin)
OMNI above 11.45
OMTR above 22.56
PRST above 8.12
I'm also watching ASYT because it was pointed out on http://squeezeshorts.blogspot.com and looks ready to fly.
Good luck tomorrow!
Sunday, July 8, 2007
Trade Ideas for 7/9/2007
The market is probably extended a bit due to the upward movement last week, but that doesn't mean it can't keep moving up. Lots of charts look bullish to me, so here are a handful of long ideas:
COGT above 14.91
DEPO above 4.96
DSTI above 6.30
LAVA above 14.31
LPHI above 35.00 (thin)
OMTR above 22.50
That's probably enough to get interested Monday morning. Good luck!
COGT above 14.91
DEPO above 4.96
DSTI above 6.30
LAVA above 14.31
LPHI above 35.00 (thin)
OMTR above 22.50
That's probably enough to get interested Monday morning. Good luck!
Sunday, July 1, 2007
Trade Ideas for 7/2/2007
Well I procrastinated this weekend and have just finished putting together my watch lists for tomorrow. Rather than just give you a few, today I'm posting my three primary lists in their entirety: Long ideas, Short Ideas, and my B-list ideas. I'm not giving specific entry points today, but generally will on a daily basis. Quite a few of these look good, but I do expect some low volume, choppy trading during this holiday week that precedes the kick off of earnings season.
Good Luck!
Good Luck!
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Trade Ideas for 6/27/2007
CSUN above 14.00 (sector is flying)
EMIS above 4.52 (even better after pullback to ~4.40)
EMKR above 5.40 (I really like this short-term chart)
MED above 9.20 (don't tell anyone I mentioned a listed stock :)
WIND above 11.03 (this one looks great)
I have some short ideas but after that post-close sell-off in the futures today, I doubt that they will be predictable entries in the morning so I didn't inlcude them...but consider watching HNT and NFLX. Also, be careful of the shakeout if we get it; it looks to me like we could POTENTIALLY get moving to the downside.
EMIS above 4.52 (even better after pullback to ~4.40)
EMKR above 5.40 (I really like this short-term chart)
MED above 9.20 (don't tell anyone I mentioned a listed stock :)
WIND above 11.03 (this one looks great)
I have some short ideas but after that post-close sell-off in the futures today, I doubt that they will be predictable entries in the morning so I didn't inlcude them...but consider watching HNT and NFLX. Also, be careful of the shakeout if we get it; it looks to me like we could POTENTIALLY get moving to the downside.
Lots of Nice Responses
Well, I have to say I'm happy to see that there are quite a number of people out there checking this blog every day and who are interested in my continuing to post ideas. Without specific feedback like that it's hard to get a feel for whether or not people are actually feeling like they receive actionable ideas from my postings. As it seems that is the case, I'll go ahead and continue posting ideas on a daily basis as I have in the past. Sometimes in setup sheet form, and (if I'm shorter on time) in the form of entering above or below a given price.
While it is effort to post to a blog, I do feel that what goes around comes around and that good karma comes around from time to time when you help others. I'm happy to continue offering up my thoughts on tradable setups and welcome feedback if there is something that comes to mind about the blog, the ideas, or how I may change the way I run the blog. By the way, I have considered doing videos, and may at some point, but it's important to me that I don't just copy-cat Brian at AlphaTrends...that was his original idea as far as I know.
Thoughts welcome, and I'll look forward to continued blogging!
While it is effort to post to a blog, I do feel that what goes around comes around and that good karma comes around from time to time when you help others. I'm happy to continue offering up my thoughts on tradable setups and welcome feedback if there is something that comes to mind about the blog, the ideas, or how I may change the way I run the blog. By the way, I have considered doing videos, and may at some point, but it's important to me that I don't just copy-cat Brian at AlphaTrends...that was his original idea as far as I know.
Thoughts welcome, and I'll look forward to continued blogging!
Monday, June 25, 2007
Pause in Posting Ideas
Unless there is enough interest in my ideas to generate some email requests, I plan to stop posting ideas for a while due to time constraints. If there is enough interest in my inbox, I'll continue to post some ideas in some form.
Let me know what you think.
Let me know what you think.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Thoughts for 6/21/2007
The market sold off pretty good today as I'm sure you know. Looking over my lists for tomorrow, I see quite a few POTENTIAL trades but nothing that I feel like warrants being listed here for your consideration. I'll look things over again tomorrow and will probably post some ideas for Friday.
It will be interesting to see where all this goes. Rising 50DMA etc indicates that we're still in a bull market, yes; but...it feels to me like it's possible to get going to the downside and even break the recent lows.
What do I know? Not much! All I can do is watch and see what happens. I'm sure you will do the same!
It will be interesting to see where all this goes. Rising 50DMA etc indicates that we're still in a bull market, yes; but...it feels to me like it's possible to get going to the downside and even break the recent lows.
What do I know? Not much! All I can do is watch and see what happens. I'm sure you will do the same!
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Trade Candidates for 6/20/2007
ATLS above 55.16 (very thin)
CLNE above 13.75
DEPO above 5.04
IDSA above 16.68
CLNE above 13.75
DEPO above 5.04
IDSA above 16.68
Monday, June 18, 2007
Trade Candidates for 6/19/2007
Okay, okay - no setup sheet again. It's easier for me to give you an entry point and probably better for you to decide how much risk you're willing to take, and thus better for you to determine where your stop should be. My style is to keep stops tight and run for cover quickly when a stock starts to go the wrong way. You may be different; there are many ways to skin a cat...but keep your risk:reward in focus.
A few ideas for Tuesday:
ATLS above 55.16 (SUPER thin)
CMCO above 30.08
MVSN above 30.25
XOMA above 30.42
EXBD below 66.20
Good luck.
A few ideas for Tuesday:
ATLS above 55.16 (SUPER thin)
CMCO above 30.08
MVSN above 30.25
XOMA above 30.42
EXBD below 66.20
Good luck.
Sunday, June 17, 2007
Trade Candidates for 6/18/2007
Geez everyone! Sorry for such a late posting this weekend. I did all of my prep work on Saturday morning then got busy with running, barbecuing/entertaining, more running, then father's day stuff like hanging out the the coolest wife and two little boys possible. Oh yea, margaritas made their way into the mix a couple times too ;)...!
Here are a few ideas for tomorrow; no setup sheet as it's late and I don't want to take the time right now. Normal approach again starting tomorrow.
AATI above 9.60 (I'm already long this one)
CYTC above 42.30 (looks GREAT)
NOVC above 10.40 (thin...)
OVTI above 16.19
If you really want a thin one that I like look at CHIP. I'm also long a couple others from Friday: SNDA and TXCC.
Lots of other ideas but that's probably enough for tonight.
Good luck Monday!
Here are a few ideas for tomorrow; no setup sheet as it's late and I don't want to take the time right now. Normal approach again starting tomorrow.
AATI above 9.60 (I'm already long this one)
CYTC above 42.30 (looks GREAT)
NOVC above 10.40 (thin...)
OVTI above 16.19
If you really want a thin one that I like look at CHIP. I'm also long a couple others from Friday: SNDA and TXCC.
Lots of other ideas but that's probably enough for tonight.
Good luck Monday!
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Okay - Some Ideas for Thursday 6/14/2007
Well we had a pretty nice up day today - how about that volatility?
Here are a few ideas worth taking a look at for tomorrow - just in case you don't have anything else to focus on :)
CYPB above 14.30
ESEA above 14.85 (very thin and volatile)
MPWR above 17.30 (also thin)
ONT above 2.91
SMTC above 16.57 (I'm long a position in this already, FYI)
I see a bunch of others but these are a good start.
Good Luck!!
Here are a few ideas worth taking a look at for tomorrow - just in case you don't have anything else to focus on :)
CYPB above 14.30
ESEA above 14.85 (very thin and volatile)
MPWR above 17.30 (also thin)
ONT above 2.91
SMTC above 16.57 (I'm long a position in this already, FYI)
I see a bunch of others but these are a good start.
Good Luck!!
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
No Ideas for Wednesday through Friday
With the volatility in the markets and options/futures expiration on Friday, I won't be posting any more ideas until some time this weekend, and that will be the case only if we see some stabilization in the indexes by the end of the week.
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