Tuesday, August 4, 2009

New Website

I am now posting my trade setups and live trade videos at www.tradesetups.com

Come on over and check it out!

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Guess we found our direction

Yo-Yo Ma-rket

Kind of rudderless here

Monday, February 23, 2009

Selling pressure...

The tick, cumulative tick, and advancing/declining issues say it all today






Monday, February 9, 2009

Posting Again!

I'm going to start posting charts for a few ideas I like. You can follow my thoughts on twitter also: search for apextrader.




I'm long CYPB right here; seems to be consolidating in the $9.00 area above the 10dma. I'll add on strength above today's highs.





GIGM seems to be consolidating here above $7.25 to $7.30; I'll add on strength above today's highs also. This one is volatile, be careful.


Saturday, November 17, 2007

Ideas for 11/19/2007

A few ideas for Monday:

Long:

ATHN
AUXL
CPST
ESLR
MRCY

Short:

CCRT
QSII
RVBD
SWHC

Sunday, November 4, 2007

Ideas for 11/5/2007

Given the volatility in the market right now I don't want to provide specific ideas on entry points or stop loss points, but here are a handful of stocks I like the looks of on the long side for Monday:

ALXN
AVNX
DECK
GLDN

In this kind of environment I'll be both very selective and very defensive in my long trades.

Sunday, October 14, 2007

Trade Ideas for 10/15/2007

I haven't been posting much lately, but I have been trading a lot and I'm on pace for a third consecutive record month of profits. We'll see how it goes after that little washout on Thursday. The market recovered nicely, but a V-bottom? Maybe, but I'm not approaching it with conviction that we can't see lower prices in the next couple weeks. Just gonna trade what I see.

I'm not overly excited about setups I see for Monday but here are a few to consider:

ARAY above 18.40
BLUD above 38.60
LBTYA above 42.50

I haven't checked earnings dates, so be sure to do that before considering something longer than an intraday trade.

Saturday, September 22, 2007

Trade ideas for 9/24/2007

Here are a few ideas for Monday:

ANGO above 20.11
HEPH above 2.12
OMEX above 6.37

Also, BCSI above 85.00, but it's pretty extended on the weekly chart so be careful. And, I've been watching LOCM forever, and it's potentially looking good above 6.00, but is still below the declining 50dma.

I see lots of good charts out there, but the market is extended still so I'll be taking it easy initially on Monday morning. Good luck!

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Did it!

1:36:08 (7:20 per mile)

Not what I was shooting for, but a personal best by 8 minutes, and I had a nasty stomach cramp the whole way - ouch. Without that, I probably had another minute or two in me. Perhaps I can achieve a low-1:30's pace next time. OK, let me make a note of that...

A few pics:

Time/distance/pace from my GPS:



The early going:






Okay, can you think of a better location than this?? That's me out by the bushes, if you can see that far.




This is how I felt afterward; ouch! Stomach cramps the whole way, and in the final 2 miles my left hip was hurting like crazy.




Mission accomplished!

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

The Big 4-0!

And I don't mean I made $40K today (though yesterday did make a nice contribution toward that daily goal...!). No, tomorrow is a big day, my 40th birthday (feels kind of scary at this particular moment) and I'm going to attempt to run a personal best half marathon. Hey, I need to do SOMETHING to mark the occasion, right? And, what better than to be in the best shape of my life on that day? Well, I've been training like a madman the past 3-4 months, and I'm about as ready as a busy guy can be. My personal best of 1:44:00 last year should be eclipsed (I didn't train very well for that one) and my goal is to break 90 minutes, or a minimum of 6:52 per mile. In my recent training, I have not been able to hold that pace for more than 4 or 5 miles, so at this point I seriously doubt meeting that goal. A more realistic goal pace of 7:15 per mile would put my final time in at about 1:35:00, and if I can achieve that I'll be pretty happy. So, short of an unexpected heart attack (hope I'm not jinxing this...fingers crossed...) I'll post my actual time tomorrow.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Okay, that cleared it up alright!

I guess we know what the Fed's intentions are now, huh? Thanks to big Ben, my short puts on the SPX turned out super sweet, sealing a second consecutive record month of premium selling profits. Also had a couple nice long trades today. More on the put selling strategy at some point soon; I just haven't taken the time to post how I do it.

It will be interesting to see now if we get some pullback action or if we just head for the moon. I'm going to act like a trader should, and wait for the setups that tell me: High reward, low risk. Every good trader I know (or know of) acts that way, and I'm not going to be the guy that chases an extended market.

I'll probably start posting some ideas soon, as the market now seems to know what direction it wants to go. I will say at this point, however, not every relevant sector index out there is screaming "buy" and I'm not feeling convinced that this is a done deal. We will see, but I'm going to trade the opportunities I can drum up, not just pile into the market on a Fed move. If we get a fake out, or some news that starts causing people to question the strength of the market, remember that A LOT of people bought today and if their positions come under pressure, the selling will come.

More soon.

Sunday, August 26, 2007

Trading First, Blogging Second

OK, so it's been quite a while since I've done a post. With all that action in the markets I put my blogging efforts down the list a bit, and during that time I've realized that I'm a trader much more than a blogger - at least if you measure it by my level of commitment and interest in it. With that in mind, I'm only going to post trade ideas when it's convenient to do so; if you have a feed of some kind connected to this blog it should be easy to know when I post. Otherwise, the best blog out there is Brian's so I recommend checking that one at least daily.

If you're wondering about my earlier comment about selling SPX put options, it did turn out to be an interesting ride. I was in and out of those August 1400 puts twice, and exited at even both times. Fortunately I was defensive in my approach as they did go 30 points in the money before expiring worthless, so I would have had to roll them for a significant loss had I held them (however, I would have recovered that money shortly thereafter on the bounce with the new positions). I was later early on selling some September 1325's and 1250's, but kept the position small until we turned around, and then added to it nicely and watched one of my best-ever months of trading profits unfold. I'm not saying it was without risk, and the position did go against me, but I've been doing this kind of option trading for quite a while now and with a level head I always get my money in the end

I'm not convinced the volatility is over, though it may be in the very short term. The market needs time to convince us all we know what's going to happen before we get the next surprise. In the mean time, I'll be waiting patiently for the next option opportunity to arise, and will be trading individual stocks and ETF's as usual. To the extent I find nice opportunities and have a few minutes to post them, I'll put them up for you to check out.

Good trading!

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Too Busy to Post...

Hey, my apologies for not posting a note sooner. I've been so busy trying to keep track of this volatility in the markets and my positions that I've put posting to this blog on the back burner. When things calm down some and I start seeing more traditional stock setups, I'll resume posting. When that is depends when we finally wiggle around enough to resume some kind of identifiable trend in the indexes.

Keep checking back for posts of new ideas when you have a spare moment.

Thursday, July 26, 2007

So Maybe I'm NOT crazy...

Two days ago I said that we could see 1450-1460 in the SPX. Today we saw 1465.30, awfully close to that range. Remember however that the 200 day MA is at about 1447 and if you draw a trend line on the weekly chart (depending on how you draw it) it's at about that level also. So, while we had a huge washout today, and some positive news could send us bouncing up some, I won't be surprised to see that level, or at a minimum retest today's lows, in the next week or two. Having said that, I could be totally wrong and we just creep (or fly) up from here.

Regardless, I sat tight on my short SPX put positions, which went hard against me today but never went anywhere near my 1400 strike level. So, as I like to tell Brian, "they're gonna have to come and get me" if they want to force me to roll the the puts down to a lower strike and out to a later expiration. We'll see, and if it comes to that, it won't be the first time, but in the end, I get my money!

In the mean time, I won't be posting ideas until things settle down a bit. If you want one idea, sell some short-term, far out-of-the-money puts on one of the indexes on a retest of today's lows.

Until sanity returns, good luck!

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Summer Time and the Trading Isn't so Easy

At least if you were long the market today it wasn't easy! I was long QID from yesterday afternoon, and like a dork, sold on the gap up this morning and made up my mind we weren't going down too far today. Duh! Shoulda kept watching it carefully. Instead I was looking for a bounce in a few bullish stocks, not the best strategy when the markets are down around 2%.

This movement will, however, create a wonderful opportunity to sell SPX puts to people who are late to the option buying party. So, I put an initial position on today, and will sit with both patience and intensity (like a hungry cat in the wild) waiting for the moment when the premiums are so ridiculous and the fear so great that I can sell short term SPX puts for far more than they're worth...then sit back and watch them expire in my favor. Timing is KEY however, so patience is in order. This market, while generally bullish, could surprise us and go down a lot further. Do I hear 1450/1460 anyone? I doubt it, but as I always say, what do I know?

This isn't the best time to be offering up long ideas, but here are a few for tomorrow; maybe we'll get lucky:

CRTX above 2.26
SGMO above 9.90
WRSP above 5.18

If you're really gutsy, watch TWTI and GGBM for entries also. Don't forget to use stops, and don't forget to check earnings/news also, I haven't checked yet.

While there are many terrible looking charts out there right now (the majority of what I looked at this afternoon) I don't see short opps that I feel comfortable with mentioning. I do think HHGP could setup for a trade, but it might take some time.

Good luck Wednesday!

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Summer Time and the Liv'in is Easy...

I'm off to Mammoth mountain with my family and friends for a long weekend starting Wednesday 7/18, so I won't be posting anything until after trading on Monday 7/23. Don't get me wrong, I like to post ideas...but hey, fun is calling! A guy has to have his priorities, right?!!

Hopefully you have a great few days of trading while I'm enjoying the mountains in the summertime. If you see a great trade, trade it for me and send the money ;)

Sunday, July 15, 2007

Trade Ideas for 7/16/2007

I know, I know...another late Sunday post. Busy, busy, busy.

Ideas for Monday:

AKRX above 7.00
CVTX above 13.15
CYPB above 13.60
EMIS above 4.86
IRIS above 16.55

And if MVIS can get above 5.10 I think it can get going. I squeezed a nice little trade out of this one late Friday :)

I should point out that I see so many bullish charts that, in combination with the market seeming to be extended and with earnings season in full swing early this week, I am skeptical about how good things look.

I haven't checked earnings dates yet, so be sure to do that before you consider a trade. Good luck!

Thursday, July 12, 2007

Trade Ideas for 7/13/2007

So WTF was that? Geez. Gap down Tuesday, gap up Thursday to new record levels? I got long lots of GE...and was stopped out just before the real run up. Freaking POS. I had it right...other than the timing. Direction = Easy; Timing = Not Easy.

Here are a few ideas for Friday the 13th. Should we remember that date given what just happened? Heck if I know..

ARGN above 19.60
BIOS above 4.99
CVTX above 13.15
HDY above 3.05
LAVA above 14.35

MWA looks interesting again also.

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Trade Ideas for 7/12/2007

Had an OK day, not great, not bad. Lots of volatility out there. Looks like I'll have a pile of short SPX puts expiring worthless next week (I love it when that happens!).

A few ideas for tomorrow (check the news; I haven't yet):

HDY above 3.05
PRXI above 16.90 (looks good; I'm long already)
QCOM above 43.95 (IF...MKT is strong)
SPEC above 17.03 (thin)

Good luck as always.

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Trade Ideas for 7/10/2007

While I didn't mention it in yesterday's post, I took off most of my energy plays during the strength yesterday...which turned out to be a good move. Whew!

Things will be a bit more tricky now, but I do have a few ideas for you to take a look at. Just remember that with the volatility in the markets, whipsaw action is more likely. Here are some that I like for Wednesday:

EMIS above 4.94
HDY above 3.02
MWA above 16.50
PRST above 16.31 (there was a fantastic trade in this one today)

On the short side:

RMBS on weakness after a rally to the 18.00 area
ROST on weakness after a rally to the 30.40-30.50 area

Good Luck!

Monday, July 9, 2007

Trade Ideas for 7/10/2007

Aaahhhh! I love it when trades go my way. I had the most excellent trades today in CYPB and HOKU. Nice! By the way, both of those charts still look really good if you can find a low-risk entry point. I know I'll be watching them again tomorrow. I nailed HOKU last Friday also :)

For Tuesday I like:

AATI above 9.90
AKRX above 7.01 (thin)
OMNI above 11.45
OMTR above 22.56
PRST above 8.12

I'm also watching ASYT because it was pointed out on http://squeezeshorts.blogspot.com and looks ready to fly.

Good luck tomorrow!

Sunday, July 8, 2007

Trade Ideas for 7/9/2007

The market is probably extended a bit due to the upward movement last week, but that doesn't mean it can't keep moving up. Lots of charts look bullish to me, so here are a handful of long ideas:

COGT above 14.91
DEPO above 4.96
DSTI above 6.30
LAVA above 14.31
LPHI above 35.00 (thin)
OMTR above 22.50

That's probably enough to get interested Monday morning. Good luck!

Sunday, July 1, 2007

Trade Ideas for 7/2/2007



Well I procrastinated this weekend and have just finished putting together my watch lists for tomorrow. Rather than just give you a few, today I'm posting my three primary lists in their entirety: Long ideas, Short Ideas, and my B-list ideas. I'm not giving specific entry points today, but generally will on a daily basis. Quite a few of these look good, but I do expect some low volume, choppy trading during this holiday week that precedes the kick off of earnings season.

Good Luck!

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Trade Ideas for 6/27/2007

CSUN above 14.00 (sector is flying)
EMIS above 4.52 (even better after pullback to ~4.40)
EMKR above 5.40 (I really like this short-term chart)
MED above 9.20 (don't tell anyone I mentioned a listed stock :)
WIND above 11.03 (this one looks great)

I have some short ideas but after that post-close sell-off in the futures today, I doubt that they will be predictable entries in the morning so I didn't inlcude them...but consider watching HNT and NFLX. Also, be careful of the shakeout if we get it; it looks to me like we could POTENTIALLY get moving to the downside.

Lots of Nice Responses

Well, I have to say I'm happy to see that there are quite a number of people out there checking this blog every day and who are interested in my continuing to post ideas. Without specific feedback like that it's hard to get a feel for whether or not people are actually feeling like they receive actionable ideas from my postings. As it seems that is the case, I'll go ahead and continue posting ideas on a daily basis as I have in the past. Sometimes in setup sheet form, and (if I'm shorter on time) in the form of entering above or below a given price.

While it is effort to post to a blog, I do feel that what goes around comes around and that good karma comes around from time to time when you help others. I'm happy to continue offering up my thoughts on tradable setups and welcome feedback if there is something that comes to mind about the blog, the ideas, or how I may change the way I run the blog. By the way, I have considered doing videos, and may at some point, but it's important to me that I don't just copy-cat Brian at AlphaTrends...that was his original idea as far as I know.

Thoughts welcome, and I'll look forward to continued blogging!

Monday, June 25, 2007

Pause in Posting Ideas

Unless there is enough interest in my ideas to generate some email requests, I plan to stop posting ideas for a while due to time constraints. If there is enough interest in my inbox, I'll continue to post some ideas in some form.

Let me know what you think.

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Thoughts for 6/21/2007

The market sold off pretty good today as I'm sure you know. Looking over my lists for tomorrow, I see quite a few POTENTIAL trades but nothing that I feel like warrants being listed here for your consideration. I'll look things over again tomorrow and will probably post some ideas for Friday.

It will be interesting to see where all this goes. Rising 50DMA etc indicates that we're still in a bull market, yes; but...it feels to me like it's possible to get going to the downside and even break the recent lows.

What do I know? Not much! All I can do is watch and see what happens. I'm sure you will do the same!

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Trade Candidates for 6/20/2007

ATLS above 55.16 (very thin)
CLNE above 13.75
DEPO above 5.04
IDSA above 16.68

Monday, June 18, 2007

Trade Candidates for 6/19/2007

Okay, okay - no setup sheet again. It's easier for me to give you an entry point and probably better for you to decide how much risk you're willing to take, and thus better for you to determine where your stop should be. My style is to keep stops tight and run for cover quickly when a stock starts to go the wrong way. You may be different; there are many ways to skin a cat...but keep your risk:reward in focus.

A few ideas for Tuesday:

ATLS above 55.16 (SUPER thin)
CMCO above 30.08
MVSN above 30.25
XOMA above 30.42

EXBD below 66.20

Good luck.

Sunday, June 17, 2007

Trade Candidates for 6/18/2007

Geez everyone! Sorry for such a late posting this weekend. I did all of my prep work on Saturday morning then got busy with running, barbecuing/entertaining, more running, then father's day stuff like hanging out the the coolest wife and two little boys possible. Oh yea, margaritas made their way into the mix a couple times too ;)...!

Here are a few ideas for tomorrow; no setup sheet as it's late and I don't want to take the time right now. Normal approach again starting tomorrow.

AATI above 9.60 (I'm already long this one)
CYTC above 42.30 (looks GREAT)
NOVC above 10.40 (thin...)
OVTI above 16.19

If you really want a thin one that I like look at CHIP. I'm also long a couple others from Friday: SNDA and TXCC.

Lots of other ideas but that's probably enough for tonight.

Good luck Monday!