Saturday, November 17, 2007
Sunday, November 4, 2007
In this kind of environment I'll be both very selective and very defensive in my long trades.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
I'm not overly excited about setups I see for Monday but here are a few to consider:
ARAY above 18.40
BLUD above 38.60
LBTYA above 42.50
I haven't checked earnings dates, so be sure to do that before considering something longer than an intraday trade.
Saturday, September 22, 2007
ANGO above 20.11
HEPH above 2.12
OMEX above 6.37
Also, BCSI above 85.00, but it's pretty extended on the weekly chart so be careful. And, I've been watching LOCM forever, and it's potentially looking good above 6.00, but is still below the declining 50dma.
I see lots of good charts out there, but the market is extended still so I'll be taking it easy initially on Monday morning. Good luck!
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Not what I was shooting for, but a personal best by 8 minutes, and I had a nasty stomach cramp the whole way - ouch. Without that, I probably had another minute or two in me. Perhaps I can achieve a low-1:30's pace next time. OK, let me make a note of that...
A few pics:
Time/distance/pace from my GPS:
The early going:
Okay, can you think of a better location than this?? That's me out by the bushes, if you can see that far.
This is how I felt afterward; ouch! Stomach cramps the whole way, and in the final 2 miles my left hip was hurting like crazy.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
It will be interesting to see now if we get some pullback action or if we just head for the moon. I'm going to act like a trader should, and wait for the setups that tell me: High reward, low risk. Every good trader I know (or know of) acts that way, and I'm not going to be the guy that chases an extended market.
I'll probably start posting some ideas soon, as the market now seems to know what direction it wants to go. I will say at this point, however, not every relevant sector index out there is screaming "buy" and I'm not feeling convinced that this is a done deal. We will see, but I'm going to trade the opportunities I can drum up, not just pile into the market on a Fed move. If we get a fake out, or some news that starts causing people to question the strength of the market, remember that A LOT of people bought today and if their positions come under pressure, the selling will come.
Sunday, August 26, 2007
If you're wondering about my earlier comment about selling SPX put options, it did turn out to be an interesting ride. I was in and out of those August 1400 puts twice, and exited at even both times. Fortunately I was defensive in my approach as they did go 30 points in the money before expiring worthless, so I would have had to roll them for a significant loss had I held them (however, I would have recovered that money shortly thereafter on the bounce with the new positions). I was later early on selling some September 1325's and 1250's, but kept the position small until we turned around, and then added to it nicely and watched one of my best-ever months of trading profits unfold. I'm not saying it was without risk, and the position did go against me, but I've been doing this kind of option trading for quite a while now and with a level head I always get my money in the end
I'm not convinced the volatility is over, though it may be in the very short term. The market needs time to convince us all we know what's going to happen before we get the next surprise. In the mean time, I'll be waiting patiently for the next option opportunity to arise, and will be trading individual stocks and ETF's as usual. To the extent I find nice opportunities and have a few minutes to post them, I'll put them up for you to check out.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Keep checking back for posts of new ideas when you have a spare moment.
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Regardless, I sat tight on my short SPX put positions, which went hard against me today but never went anywhere near my 1400 strike level. So, as I like to tell Brian, "they're gonna have to come and get me" if they want to force me to roll the the puts down to a lower strike and out to a later expiration. We'll see, and if it comes to that, it won't be the first time, but in the end, I get my money!
In the mean time, I won't be posting ideas until things settle down a bit. If you want one idea, sell some short-term, far out-of-the-money puts on one of the indexes on a retest of today's lows.
Until sanity returns, good luck!
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
This movement will, however, create a wonderful opportunity to sell SPX puts to people who are late to the option buying party. So, I put an initial position on today, and will sit with both patience and intensity (like a hungry cat in the wild) waiting for the moment when the premiums are so ridiculous and the fear so great that I can sell short term SPX puts for far more than they're worth...then sit back and watch them expire in my favor. Timing is KEY however, so patience is in order. This market, while generally bullish, could surprise us and go down a lot further. Do I hear 1450/1460 anyone? I doubt it, but as I always say, what do I know?
This isn't the best time to be offering up long ideas, but here are a few for tomorrow; maybe we'll get lucky:
CRTX above 2.26
SGMO above 9.90
WRSP above 5.18
If you're really gutsy, watch TWTI and GGBM for entries also. Don't forget to use stops, and don't forget to check earnings/news also, I haven't checked yet.
While there are many terrible looking charts out there right now (the majority of what I looked at this afternoon) I don't see short opps that I feel comfortable with mentioning. I do think HHGP could setup for a trade, but it might take some time.
Good luck Wednesday!
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Hopefully you have a great few days of trading while I'm enjoying the mountains in the summertime. If you see a great trade, trade it for me and send the money ;)
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Ideas for Monday:
AKRX above 7.00
CVTX above 13.15
CYPB above 13.60
EMIS above 4.86
IRIS above 16.55
And if MVIS can get above 5.10 I think it can get going. I squeezed a nice little trade out of this one late Friday :)
I should point out that I see so many bullish charts that, in combination with the market seeming to be extended and with earnings season in full swing early this week, I am skeptical about how good things look.
I haven't checked earnings dates yet, so be sure to do that before you consider a trade. Good luck!
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Here are a few ideas for Friday the 13th. Should we remember that date given what just happened? Heck if I know..
ARGN above 19.60
BIOS above 4.99
CVTX above 13.15
HDY above 3.05
LAVA above 14.35
MWA looks interesting again also.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
A few ideas for tomorrow (check the news; I haven't yet):
HDY above 3.05
PRXI above 16.90 (looks good; I'm long already)
QCOM above 43.95 (IF...MKT is strong)
SPEC above 17.03 (thin)
Good luck as always.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Things will be a bit more tricky now, but I do have a few ideas for you to take a look at. Just remember that with the volatility in the markets, whipsaw action is more likely. Here are some that I like for Wednesday:
EMIS above 4.94
HDY above 3.02
MWA above 16.50
PRST above 16.31 (there was a fantastic trade in this one today)
On the short side:
RMBS on weakness after a rally to the 18.00 area
ROST on weakness after a rally to the 30.40-30.50 area
Monday, July 9, 2007
For Tuesday I like:
AATI above 9.90
AKRX above 7.01 (thin)
OMNI above 11.45
OMTR above 22.56
PRST above 8.12
I'm also watching ASYT because it was pointed out on http://squeezeshorts.blogspot.com and looks ready to fly.
Good luck tomorrow!
Sunday, July 8, 2007
COGT above 14.91
DEPO above 4.96
DSTI above 6.30
LAVA above 14.31
LPHI above 35.00 (thin)
OMTR above 22.50
That's probably enough to get interested Monday morning. Good luck!
Sunday, July 1, 2007
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
EMIS above 4.52 (even better after pullback to ~4.40)
EMKR above 5.40 (I really like this short-term chart)
MED above 9.20 (don't tell anyone I mentioned a listed stock :)
WIND above 11.03 (this one looks great)
I have some short ideas but after that post-close sell-off in the futures today, I doubt that they will be predictable entries in the morning so I didn't inlcude them...but consider watching HNT and NFLX. Also, be careful of the shakeout if we get it; it looks to me like we could POTENTIALLY get moving to the downside.
While it is effort to post to a blog, I do feel that what goes around comes around and that good karma comes around from time to time when you help others. I'm happy to continue offering up my thoughts on tradable setups and welcome feedback if there is something that comes to mind about the blog, the ideas, or how I may change the way I run the blog. By the way, I have considered doing videos, and may at some point, but it's important to me that I don't just copy-cat Brian at AlphaTrends...that was his original idea as far as I know.
Thoughts welcome, and I'll look forward to continued blogging!
Monday, June 25, 2007
Let me know what you think.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
It will be interesting to see where all this goes. Rising 50DMA etc indicates that we're still in a bull market, yes; but...it feels to me like it's possible to get going to the downside and even break the recent lows.
What do I know? Not much! All I can do is watch and see what happens. I'm sure you will do the same!
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Monday, June 18, 2007
A few ideas for Tuesday:
ATLS above 55.16 (SUPER thin)
CMCO above 30.08
MVSN above 30.25
XOMA above 30.42
EXBD below 66.20
Sunday, June 17, 2007
Here are a few ideas for tomorrow; no setup sheet as it's late and I don't want to take the time right now. Normal approach again starting tomorrow.
AATI above 9.60 (I'm already long this one)
CYTC above 42.30 (looks GREAT)
NOVC above 10.40 (thin...)
OVTI above 16.19
If you really want a thin one that I like look at CHIP. I'm also long a couple others from Friday: SNDA and TXCC.
Lots of other ideas but that's probably enough for tonight.
Good luck Monday!
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Here are a few ideas worth taking a look at for tomorrow - just in case you don't have anything else to focus on :)
CYPB above 14.30
ESEA above 14.85 (very thin and volatile)
MPWR above 17.30 (also thin)
ONT above 2.91
SMTC above 16.57 (I'm long a position in this already, FYI)
I see a bunch of others but these are a good start.
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Monday, June 11, 2007
Saturday, June 9, 2007
Volatility is reigning the markets right now, so be careful. I won't be surprised to see a subdued session on Monday due to lack of (scheduled) news and the whipsaw action that many experienced on Thursday and Friday. Options expiration (quadruple no less) on Friday means things may be more volatile and unpredictable than usual at times during the week (although after last week who says it's "predictable" at all?). I'll simply be watching the charts and acting accordingly...with lots of caution.
Have a great Monday!
Thursday, June 7, 2007
Anyway, I'll be watching for a tradable bottom, but that probably won't come right away...so patience is my mantra now.
I'll plan on posting some ideas on the weekend for Monday, but may reconsider after watching what happens tomorrow.
Until then, good luck at whatever you trade.
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
Here are a few ideas, although given the sketchy action in the market I would advise using a lot of caution right now. I won't go into a diatribe of what I think (who really cares anyway?) but I do know that it's time to pay a lot attention to what's happening and be defensive. I considered not posting any ideas given the greater volatility and unpredictability in this environment, so take that into consideration if you want to trade these ideas.
Good luck, as always.
Tuesday, June 5, 2007
Here are a few ideas for Wednesday. I've been a little bit surprised with the strength of the market over the past couple days, but given what I see all the ideas are on the long side. I'm trying to suspend what I believe (that we are due for an ugly surprise to the downside) and trade what I see (strength).
Monday, June 4, 2007
Sunday, June 3, 2007
Some ideas for Monday. As usual, I see quite a lot of good trade setups out there; given that they're heavily weighted to the long side that does make me think I should pay more attention to the short side! It will be interesting to see if the situation at JFK over the weekend spooks anyone into selling.
Good luck Monday.
Thursday, May 31, 2007
A few for Friday. I won't be surprised if it's a slow trading day, but...with the employment situation report coming out that may not be the case, particularly if there is a surprise. I would generally expect people to do some selling tomorrow to lock in profits and take risk off before the weekend; however, it seems that with all the M&A news it could actually play out differently (people anticipating gains Monday due to deal announcements Monday morning). Who knows? I'll be watching the charts and acting accordingly.
Next post some time on the weekend.
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Here are a few for Thursday. I'm already long CMGI but will probably add to my position above the entry price noted - it looks great to me. If you really want a short idea, watch RMBS - it looks terrible and didn't rally with everything else today. Speaking of today, that sure caught me by surprise. It will be interesting to see if it holds up given that tomorrow is month end and pending what happens in Asia overnight.
As always, good luck!
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
A few ideas for Wednesday. SUPG might be a good buy on a breakout above today's high without a pullback - your call of course. On the short side, RMBS just looks ready to croak to me...but that doesn't mean it will; I get surprised a lot (you know: what looks obvious probably isn't...).
I see quite a few other good trade setups, but I'll be watching to see if the markets can find a solid direction over the coming days before I get too excited about any of them; the gap up Friday in combination with the low volume since then does make me a bit more skeptical. But what do I know? Just watch and see what happens.
Good luck Wednesday.
Thursday, May 24, 2007
I'm not totally surprised at the negative action of the past couple of days; I also doubt that it will be a repeat of late February: there is too much positive momentum to turn around that fast and go down that far. I'm not saying we saw the bottom today (though we may have), however, I am saying that I doubt that we'll see that kind of panic in the short run. Markets that go straight up do have to have some down days, and when they come it seems like the fun is over. Maybe it is, but my money is on looking for a tradable bottom as long as it occurs within the greater uptrend. I'll be watching the reaction to the existing home sales data tomorrow morning - whether good or bad - and developing my trading plan from there. I'll be focused on the broad indexes and related options only unless I happen to find an excellent single stock setup in the next 30 minutes.
Also, I won't be trading Tuesday due to a personal commitment, so I probably won't post trade ideas until late my time on Tuesday for Wednesday trading.
Until then, good luck.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Here are some setups for Wednesday. Not surprisingly, it was a pretty tepid day today. I think these setups represent good opportunities; note that SUPG is on here again. You may have traded it today as I did but I still think it's a decent setup if it can get some momentum going.
Good luck Wednesday.
Monday, May 21, 2007
There were some real nice moves in the setups I provided for today - hopefully you guys got some of that action. I didn't trade every one of them, but had a good day overall.
Here are some ideas for Tuesday. I don't trust HANS at all - I've lost money on that homesick POS, but it does potentially look ready to move...potentially. In any event, protect yourself if you trade it. LJPC is in a downtrend on the daily chart, but the weekly looks really nice so that's why I included it. Finally, we might be early here on SUPG but I do like it on strength above $6.50 as noted.
Good luck Tuesday.
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Okay, I'm back at it with a vengence. Here are some ideas for trading on Monday. GIGM reports earnings before the open on Tuesday, so this is a day trade idea only. The market is strong, so I didn't include any short ideas. In addition to these ideas, the Q's look like a potentially nice setup to me - particularly if there is an orderly pullback to the area near the 10-day moving average. That pullback and then strength could be a good setup.
Good luck Monday.
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Until Sunday, happy trading and happy expiration (one of my favorite days of the month, by the way!).
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
I've reviewed some charts this afternoon but haven't hit it full speed yet. With options expiration on Friday and my time away, I'm going to take it slow until I get a feel for how things are trading. There's definitely been some volume on the sell side, but expiration weeks during bull phases tend to show strength late in the week, so I'll be keeping that in mind.
Here are a few ideas for tomorrow:
BCSI above 38.20
BIOS above 4.28
GLUU above 13.80
On the short side I missed EQIX today but I like it on weakness after a rally back up to around 80.00 or so.
Beyond that, I'm watching these on the long side also: ARGN, MOLX, NAFC, and TALX. Each of these four have nice chart patterns if they can get going to the upside.
As always, good luck!
Friday, May 4, 2007
Until then, Good Luck!
Thursday, May 3, 2007
DYAX above 4.71
IOTN above 5.95
QTWW above 1.44
SPEC above 14.00
Good luck Friday and have a great weekend!
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
Here are some ideas for Wednesday. Please note that AVNC is a very thin stock (and I'm long a small position already) so be careful about the lack of liquidity if you trade it. CRIS reports earnings before the open tomorrow, so I don't know what impact that will have, so be very careful there as well.
Good luck as always.
Monday, April 30, 2007
Sunday, April 29, 2007
Here are some setups for Monday. Notice that I have ACUS on the sheet again, as I did Friday, and Brian Shannon at AlphaTrends has it on his list also. If you find a stock here and on Brian's list the same day, be sure to watch it!
I have quite a few other trade ideas, but I'm sticking with the consensus among readers that a few ideas is best. Good luck Monday!
Thursday, April 26, 2007
Here are a few for Friday, good luck, I hope you were all long a bunch of calls in BIDU going into today's close! (I wasn't, unfortunately). There were however some great moves in the setups I listed for today - hopefully some of you traded those moves successfully.
Have a great Friday!
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Sorry about the lack of detailed setup info tonight, but I will typically provide that within 2 or 3 hours after the market closes. My schedule today prevented my usual post-market-close routine.
Good luck on Thursday!
I've been watching this stock and trying to catch it short for a while now. I'm not surprised to see that it took a catalyst like missing earnings to finally get it to break to the downside. In my view it's crazy to hold a stock going into an earnings announcement, but playing something like this with options can make sense. I didn't do that, but given that I've posted short setups on this stock recently I thought it would be worthwhile to point out what happened and how it could have been traded.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
There is a clear preference among readers of this blog that it's more helpful to see a handful of trade setups with entry, stop and target points in lieu of just seeing a laundry list of potential trade candidates without some input on my part on how it might make sense to trade them. So, that's what I will plan on providing. Here are some setups for Wednesday.
Monday, April 23, 2007
I'm going to try something new today and see if I get any feedback from my readers. Here are my trade watch lists for Tuesday - meaning my "A" lists but excluding my "B" list (including the B-list would simply result in way too many stocks to reasonably post). I have not provided a setup sheet (yet) and may do so later this evening. However, I'm out of time right now so I thought I would provide these lists and try to get a feel for if there is a preference for this approach or the more limited, but more detailed, setup sheet approach.
Feedback is welcome!
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Here are some ideas for Monday. I see quite a few POTENTIAL opportunities on both the long and short side of the market. The market has been amazingly strong, and may continue to be, but it also seems extended at this time and if we get some downward movement it will likely start tripping people's stops and accelerate a bit. I'll be watching closely to see what develops and trade in the direction of the very short term trend.
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
USAT (extremely thin)
These are in addition to my overlap w/ Brian at AlphaTrends - which include the following:
If you have time check back late tonight or early tomorrow to see if I have some Thursday trade setups.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
A few for Wednesday. We typically get an unexpected move some time during the final week prior to options expiration...and the market feels like it's extended right now. Time to be careful.
One other little stock I didn't mention but which looks great and I have a small long position in is VIAC. Might be worth a look but it's a thin one so caution is warranted.
Monday, April 16, 2007
I'll probably list these on the blog setup sheet later - I really like all of these!
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Here are a few for Friday. I'm sure everyone will be interested in how the PPI reading looks. Buckle up, just in case.
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
We had a couple more nice moves today (FOSL, NTLS). The pullback in NTLS was one penny short of what I was looking for, but if you're paying attention you can still find and enter a good trade in a situation like that.
Again, I have quite a few good candidates but posted a few here that seem tradable. I still like LMRA, NVTL, and (I don't think I've mentioned it before) NXTM - but this one is very thin - careful.
It should be fun to see how everyone likes or dislikes the Fed minutes this time around. Good luck tomorrow.
Monday, April 9, 2007
So did any of you get that excellent move in ITRI from Thursday or the move in DITC today? Very nice! I hope some people were able to participate. I was able to get a piece of both.
The market sold off near the end of the day and may be in for some sideways/consolidation action, if not a pullback (I always think that after a gap up like we had on Tuesday morning...particularly since it's around the area that the primary moving averages are clustering on the daily chart). Here are a few setups that may work, so it may be worth your time to take a look. Also, I am watching EXBD for a short entry, but I excluded it from the list above - FYI.
Thursday, April 5, 2007
Wednesday, April 4, 2007
One of the things that bugs me about trading is when I think a setup looks nice, I enter, then immediately get stopped out. That was the scenario today on ABAX; however, I still think it potentially looks good on strength above today's high. There may also still be hope on SONS (I'm still long) but the pressure on yesterday's gap up isn't making me feel good about it. We'll see. There was no entry on ADLR but I still like it so it's on today's setup sheet also. The weekly chart is in a downtrend however, so tread carefully.
I really like the RMBS chart (in fact I traded it today and exited) and if it can get going above today's highs it appears to me it could potentially put in a good run. ITRI has potential I think, but it's going to have to convince me.
I won't be surprised if tomorrow is traded defensively by most traders given the holiday on Friday and the employment report that comes out that day. So, whatever I do I will be careful as the follow through may not be there.
Tuesday, April 3, 2007
Okay, so we got that move above 43.85 in the Q's! The problem is, I don't like to buy after a gap up, so I day traded and made a little bit in the Q's today. Typically, there will be another chance to go long in a big way...if we're paying close enough attention. Be patient.
Two of today's three longs didn't get a pullback as I was looking for on the setup sheet. Fortunately, I was still long a partial position in GIGM from yesterday. SONE gave an entry and then sold off. Notice the sell off and recovery on March 30, then the run up and sell off today. Big battle going on in this one. ALL didn't give us an entry either, and the market is strong so shorting may not be the right strategy right now, but it does still look vulnerable to me.
Again, I have a pile of potential setups, but I've provided a few for Wednesday that seem tradable. Note that SONS (not SONE) might be good for an entry above today's high, but I'm looking for a pullback before entering to lower the risk if I trade it. Hopefully these turn out to be winners, but remember: good traders can make money on a bad idea and bad traders can lose money on a good idea...so it all comes down to you and how well you execute and manage your trades.
Have a great Wednesday!
Monday, April 2, 2007
Here are a few setups for Tuesday. I actually had all three of these longs on my watch lists today, and did trade GIGM (still long a partial position). I have a pile of stocks like this that are potential trades but they will need to set up correctly in order to have the right risk:reward relationship. I tried to provide a few here that seem simple enough to anticipate an entry. I think ALL is setting up for a nice short, but it is listed so be careful, and see my comment on the markets below - trading short might not be the thing to do if the markets can get moving upward.
Since the markets can't seem to break down and it looks as though we may be consolidating under the 50dma's in the Q's and SPY, I'll be watching carefully for a break above the recent highs - particularly around 43.85 or so in the Q's. If we can break that level with some conviction, I'll be getting long for a ride up to 45.00 or so.
Have a great Tuesday!
I had a good day today, and my SPX options are showing nice profits as well. I'll post some trade ideas for tomorrow in just a little while. I hope your trading went well today!
Sunday, April 1, 2007
Here are a few setups for Monday. I've trimmed the list down quite a bit today for a couple reasons: first, because I think it becomes overwhelming and hard to focus on a few good candidates when the list has too many symbols, and secondly, I'm trying not to keep repeating ideas on stocks that have been posted in the last few days. As I noted in a previous post, often times what I post on a given day doesn't develop into a tradable setup; however, I continue to watch those stocks and they sometimes do develop into a good setup in the ensuing days. So, rather than repeating the same ideas day after day, I'm going to try to provide new ideas each day, but fewer of them, and you can consider watching the stocks that I posted an idea on previously. That doesn't mean I won't ever post an idea on the same stock on consecutive days, I'm just generally trying to avoid that. Similarly, Brian Shannon and I often have overlapping ideas on the same day, and I am trying not to post an idea on a stock that he's mentioned recently (again, I can't guarantee I won't, but I'm trying not to overlap).
Have a great Monday!
Keep up the good work at your blog. I have been a visitor of your blog for a week now and i find it informative. I would like to seek your comments on ONT, CMGI , LMRA and PMCS please ( if you may have time to spare). I would appreciate your feedback.
Thank You. Have a good weekend.
I took a quick look that those four symbols; here are my quick views on them:
It's in a nice uptrend on both the weekly and daily timeframes; however, there was qite a sell off on Friday on high volume. With a day or two of consolidation this stock could set up for a nice long entry. Based on the monthly chart, there is potentially lots and lots of room for the stock to run; the key will be to watch for a low-risk entry point over the coming week or so.
I've been trading this stock recently, and while it's in a short-term pullback pattern, it (like CMGI) is generally in a bullish uptrend. I will watch for the gap on the morning of 3/28 to get filled and then will watch for an entry on strength above whatever the consolidation level above ~$5.00 is. I like this stock a lot on strength after it closes that gap.
I have traded this one recently as well; like the two above it's also in a nice uptrend. Since it's listed rather than NASDAQ I'm always more skeptical, but it does look like it could setup nice above the 1.62-1.64 level. I would like it a lot of it went another day or two consolidating on the short term chart and then broke that level. Again, lots of room on the monthly chart.
While this one also potentially looks good it's my least favorite of the four. I didn't check the news but it gapped up on Friday so I would be skeptical of any entry until it either consolidates those gains or (better yet) goes and closes that gap first. The weekly chart looks like it's in the process of ending a long downtrend, so I would be more suspect of this stock until both the daily and weekly charts truly turn upward. I would then look for a low risk entry point.
All four of these stocks have very nice volume patters, which is very important in combination with price patterns. I think, in general, you are looking at the right stocks for long entries; the key will be waiting until you find a low-risk entry point on each one.
Thursday, March 29, 2007
Tomorrow is Friday and the end of the month, so it's hard to say what kind of day we'll have. After that drop and recovery today, I'm inclined to think we're going to have a choppy day - we'll see. These setups actually look pretty nice on the long side (be sure to check levels of support and resistance to see if you like my entry and stop levels). I don't have any outstanding short candidates today.
I'll post my trade setups for tomorrow in a while after I have a chance to do some work.
At some time in the near future, I'll do a post on how I trade short SPX options. Today was a great day for part of what I do because there was a shakeout and as the market recovered, it looks like VIX put in a peak which is part of what I look for when shorting SPX puts. More later when I have a chance to do a more comprehensive post.
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Well we had a pretty decent pullback today on more than light volume. I'm not really trying to do broad market commentary because Brian (and some others) do such a good job at that. It would suffice to say that the market is mixed and in a risky stage at this point, so whatever you decide to do, be careful!
There are potential opportunities on both the long and short side of the market, and I have tried to provide a relatively short list of decent candidates. I also have quite a few others I'm watching, many of which have been included in recent posts. A handful I'm particularly interested in are: APAC, MAMA, FIRE, LMRA, and LWSN on the long side. I'm also keeping an eye on CROX, IDCC, NATI and NEWP on the short side (I'm currently short NEWP).
Finally, one of my favorites perked up recently and may be setting up for a quick trade: ISIS. However, if you consider trading this one be very, very careful - do you see all the gaps on the daily chart? That means it can surprise you - in either direction.
I knew yesterday that something was up with APAC - look at the volume that traded yesterday - very high. Interestingly, most of it came late it the day. The chart looks bullish (I still think so) but when you see that kind of volume you never know for sure if it's good news or bad news. So far it looks like it meant bad news in this case, but maybe not: this morning's dip may have been a shakeout before moving higher (we'll have to wait and see). What is for sure is that this is a good example of what can (and often does) happen in thin stocks. They can move very quickly! That's why I point out that you need to be careful if you trade thin stocks.
I entered this stock today based on my setup sheet (just above 4.75) and put my stop at 4.68. Thin stocks like this can move far and fast against you, so while your fill on a stop may slip from your intended price, this shows why it's so important to use stops. I lost, but I didn't lose very much. That is the discipline of trading: keep your losses small and let your winners run.
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Here are some setups for Wednesday. Got a nice move today out of LMRA; looking for re-entry on pullback as noted above; I may regret not leaving it on as it finished very strong.
In addition to the setups above, consider taking a look at the following (some are pretty thin - be sure to check what kind of volume they trade): LJPC, SIGA, ADLR, HLTH (I'm still prowling on these, waiting for the right entry - you've probably seen them in posts of recent days) as well as TALX, ZUMZ and GLUU. On the short side, I watched IDCC for what seemed like forever for a break down and it looks like it might have finally started today. I'll be watching for a rally back up and a short entry if conditions seem right for it. NATI, my short from yesterday, can't seem to decide where it's going, but it does look like a stock that's ready to tank - we'll see.
I should point out that while I post a certain set of stocks as potential setups for the following day, they often don't move as anticipated and the entry doesn't develop that day. However, I keep many of those on my watch lists for the following days and they often do develop into a tradable entry - either along the lines that I originally anticipated or a bit different based on how the stock trades in the interim period. So, if it seems like there is quite a bit of overlap on symbols from day to day, it's because there often is until a good entry develops.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Well there was certainly some volatility today, which in the end looks like some nice consolidation. The fact that the market recovered so well after that initial sell off tells me that we're probably not going to completely cave in - at least any time real soon.
Here are some trade setups for tomorrow. I have lots and lots of thin, low-priced stocks that look potentially ready for a move up; however, I've limited the list today to six candidates to keep it manageable. Of these, ESST and FIRE are pretty thin. I'm currently long some LWSN (and EVC as well) after getting shaken out initially this morning. No short setups today as the bias seems upward; I was short NATI most of the day and given that it didn't break down (and traded pretty high volume again without downward movement), I covered.
If you want a few more to keep your eye on, here are some to take a look at, but remember: many of these are thin and volatile: HOKU, HRSH, JAV (very thin), LJPC, SIGA.
If you have a minute take a look at JSDA and SMSI. Both were on my "B" list today and I missed them!
Saturday, March 24, 2007
I am an independent, full-time trader of stocks, futures and options. I trade my own accounts, no one else’s; I don’t manage money nor do I provide any kind of investment advice. I don’t charge anyone for anything because I don’t provide services of any kind. I do REAL TRADES, with REAL MONEY, every day. I earn my living the hard way: by grinding out profitable trades based on hard work, commitment, and a passion for trading. It’s that simple (but not easy).
This blog is my way of sharing my views on stock trading, the market, and (if I feel inclined) on life. Blogging has become an excellent way to communicate and share with others who share similar interests and who may be able to help each other in our endeavors. I will generally post my ACTUAL TRADE SETUPS in a grid format for anyone to review as educational and idea generating tool. I may also post certain other ideas or observations from time to time.
In general, I will post my trade setups for the following day some time within a few hours after the market closes. As an example, I will generally post Tuesday’s trade setups some time Monday afternoon. Of course there will be exceptions to this, but that will be the general approach. If there is not a post within a few hours after the market close, check back later in the evening or early the next morning.
Right here! Consider adding http://www.apextrader.blogspot.com/ to your favorites list.
Why would I go to all this trouble? Because I think it helps me to help others: by formalizing my trade ideas and making them visible to other traders, I expect to become a better trader myself and to learn from others who look at my trade ideas.
DISCLAIMER AND WORD OF CAUTION…
This blog is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not providing investment advice, and I am not making trade recommendations. I am sharing my own personal views on trading and providing one person’s perspective on potential trade opportunities. That doesn’t mean you should trade them. If you trade, you are always responsible for your own trades and your own trade ideas. Some of the stocks I trade can be very volatile and thinly traded (illiquid). Trading involves risk, so if you trade you should be sure you understand what you are doing.
Thursday, March 22, 2007
There is a reason that good traders teach and preach the importance of TREND ALIGNMENT across the timeframes relevant to your trade. Yesterday, in the excitement of a runaway market with FED euphoria, I went long ICE on strength above the highs made earlier in the day, anticipating a reversal of the downtrend so clear on the daily timeframe. The stock appeared to hold support at the 10dma, and looked headed upward. However, ICE sold off (on high volume) on the short term chart yesterday afternoon, foretelling today's selloff and reminding me that one should never hold a long position in a downtrending stock - and if you decide to anyway - don't trust it. That is doubly true if it's a listed stock. Another post-it reminder will have to be added to those already hanging on my monitors...
I expect tomorrow to be a slow day in the markets given the lack of data beyond Existing Home Sales data and the fact that it's Friday following the action we've seen this week. I probably won't trade, but will flip through some charts later this evening and if I find something really interesting I'll post it tonight. (One decent looking short opportunity however that caught my eye is WFMI.)
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Monday, March 19, 2007
Here are my trade candidates for Tuesday. There are several longs, but no shorts as I don't see any good short candidates today. For the time being I am including all potential trade candidates, but in the future I may limit the lists to 3-5 tickers each in order to prevent the lists from being unreasonably long. Feedback on whether or not I should limit the lists is welcome, of course!
Beginning today I am also including my watch list which consists of stocks that are not ready for a low-risk entry but which appear close. I monitor this list of stocks throughout the day and when a given stock appears ready for a potential trade, I move it over to the appropriate primary list (long or short, as the case may be).