Ideas for 11/19/2007

A few ideas for Monday:

Long:

ATHN
AUXL
CPST
ESLR
MRCY

Short:

CCRT
QSII
RVBD
SWHC

Ideas for 11/5/2007

Given the volatility in the market right now I don't want to provide specific ideas on entry points or stop loss points, but here are a handful of stocks I like the looks of on the long side for Monday:

ALXN
AVNX
DECK
GLDN

In this kind of environment I'll be both very selective and very defensive in my long trades.

Trade Ideas for 10/15/2007

I haven't been posting much lately, but I have been trading a lot and I'm on pace for a third consecutive record month of profits. We'll see how it goes after that little washout on Thursday. The market recovered nicely, but a V-bottom? Maybe, but I'm not approaching it with conviction that we can't see lower prices in the next couple weeks. Just gonna trade what I see.

I'm not overly excited about setups I see for Monday but here are a few to consider:

ARAY above 18.40
BLUD above 38.60
LBTYA above 42.50

I haven't checked earnings dates, so be sure to do that before considering something longer than an intraday trade.

Trade ideas for 9/24/2007

Here are a few ideas for Monday:

ANGO above 20.11
HEPH above 2.12
OMEX above 6.37

Also, BCSI above 85.00, but it's pretty extended on the weekly chart so be careful. And, I've been watching LOCM forever, and it's potentially looking good above 6.00, but is still below the declining 50dma.

I see lots of good charts out there, but the market is extended still so I'll be taking it easy initially on Monday morning. Good luck!

Did it!

1:36:08 (7:20 per mile)

Not what I was shooting for, but a personal best by 8 minutes, and I had a nasty stomach cramp the whole way - ouch. Without that, I probably had another minute or two in me. Perhaps I can achieve a low-1:30's pace next time. OK, let me make a note of that...

A few pics:

Time/distance/pace from my GPS:



The early going:






Okay, can you think of a better location than this?? That's me out by the bushes, if you can see that far.




This is how I felt afterward; ouch! Stomach cramps the whole way, and in the final 2 miles my left hip was hurting like crazy.




Mission accomplished!

The Big 4-0!

And I don't mean I made $40K today (though yesterday did make a nice contribution toward that daily goal...!). No, tomorrow is a big day, my 40th birthday (feels kind of scary at this particular moment) and I'm going to attempt to run a personal best half marathon. Hey, I need to do SOMETHING to mark the occasion, right? And, what better than to be in the best shape of my life on that day? Well, I've been training like a madman the past 3-4 months, and I'm about as ready as a busy guy can be. My personal best of 1:44:00 last year should be eclipsed (I didn't train very well for that one) and my goal is to break 90 minutes, or a minimum of 6:52 per mile. In my recent training, I have not been able to hold that pace for more than 4 or 5 miles, so at this point I seriously doubt meeting that goal. A more realistic goal pace of 7:15 per mile would put my final time in at about 1:35:00, and if I can achieve that I'll be pretty happy. So, short of an unexpected heart attack (hope I'm not jinxing this...fingers crossed...) I'll post my actual time tomorrow.

Okay, that cleared it up alright!

I guess we know what the Fed's intentions are now, huh? Thanks to big Ben, my short puts on the SPX turned out super sweet, sealing a second consecutive record month of premium selling profits. Also had a couple nice long trades today. More on the put selling strategy at some point soon; I just haven't taken the time to post how I do it.

It will be interesting to see now if we get some pullback action or if we just head for the moon. I'm going to act like a trader should, and wait for the setups that tell me: High reward, low risk. Every good trader I know (or know of) acts that way, and I'm not going to be the guy that chases an extended market.

I'll probably start posting some ideas soon, as the market now seems to know what direction it wants to go. I will say at this point, however, not every relevant sector index out there is screaming "buy" and I'm not feeling convinced that this is a done deal. We will see, but I'm going to trade the opportunities I can drum up, not just pile into the market on a Fed move. If we get a fake out, or some news that starts causing people to question the strength of the market, remember that A LOT of people bought today and if their positions come under pressure, the selling will come.

More soon.

Trading First, Blogging Second

OK, so it's been quite a while since I've done a post. With all that action in the markets I put my blogging efforts down the list a bit, and during that time I've realized that I'm a trader much more than a blogger - at least if you measure it by my level of commitment and interest in it. With that in mind, I'm only going to post trade ideas when it's convenient to do so; if you have a feed of some kind connected to this blog it should be easy to know when I post. Otherwise, the best blog out there is Brian's so I recommend checking that one at least daily.

If you're wondering about my earlier comment about selling SPX put options, it did turn out to be an interesting ride. I was in and out of those August 1400 puts twice, and exited at even both times. Fortunately I was defensive in my approach as they did go 30 points in the money before expiring worthless, so I would have had to roll them for a significant loss had I held them (however, I would have recovered that money shortly thereafter on the bounce with the new positions). I was later early on selling some September 1325's and 1250's, but kept the position small until we turned around, and then added to it nicely and watched one of my best-ever months of trading profits unfold. I'm not saying it was without risk, and the position did go against me, but I've been doing this kind of option trading for quite a while now and with a level head I always get my money in the end

I'm not convinced the volatility is over, though it may be in the very short term. The market needs time to convince us all we know what's going to happen before we get the next surprise. In the mean time, I'll be waiting patiently for the next option opportunity to arise, and will be trading individual stocks and ETF's as usual. To the extent I find nice opportunities and have a few minutes to post them, I'll put them up for you to check out.

Good trading!

Too Busy to Post...

Hey, my apologies for not posting a note sooner. I've been so busy trying to keep track of this volatility in the markets and my positions that I've put posting to this blog on the back burner. When things calm down some and I start seeing more traditional stock setups, I'll resume posting. When that is depends when we finally wiggle around enough to resume some kind of identifiable trend in the indexes.

Keep checking back for posts of new ideas when you have a spare moment.

So Maybe I'm NOT crazy...

Two days ago I said that we could see 1450-1460 in the SPX. Today we saw 1465.30, awfully close to that range. Remember however that the 200 day MA is at about 1447 and if you draw a trend line on the weekly chart (depending on how you draw it) it's at about that level also. So, while we had a huge washout today, and some positive news could send us bouncing up some, I won't be surprised to see that level, or at a minimum retest today's lows, in the next week or two. Having said that, I could be totally wrong and we just creep (or fly) up from here.

Regardless, I sat tight on my short SPX put positions, which went hard against me today but never went anywhere near my 1400 strike level. So, as I like to tell Brian, "they're gonna have to come and get me" if they want to force me to roll the the puts down to a lower strike and out to a later expiration. We'll see, and if it comes to that, it won't be the first time, but in the end, I get my money!

In the mean time, I won't be posting ideas until things settle down a bit. If you want one idea, sell some short-term, far out-of-the-money puts on one of the indexes on a retest of today's lows.

Until sanity returns, good luck!

Summer Time and the Trading Isn't so Easy

At least if you were long the market today it wasn't easy! I was long QID from yesterday afternoon, and like a dork, sold on the gap up this morning and made up my mind we weren't going down too far today. Duh! Shoulda kept watching it carefully. Instead I was looking for a bounce in a few bullish stocks, not the best strategy when the markets are down around 2%.

This movement will, however, create a wonderful opportunity to sell SPX puts to people who are late to the option buying party. So, I put an initial position on today, and will sit with both patience and intensity (like a hungry cat in the wild) waiting for the moment when the premiums are so ridiculous and the fear so great that I can sell short term SPX puts for far more than they're worth...then sit back and watch them expire in my favor. Timing is KEY however, so patience is in order. This market, while generally bullish, could surprise us and go down a lot further. Do I hear 1450/1460 anyone? I doubt it, but as I always say, what do I know?

This isn't the best time to be offering up long ideas, but here are a few for tomorrow; maybe we'll get lucky:

CRTX above 2.26
SGMO above 9.90
WRSP above 5.18

If you're really gutsy, watch TWTI and GGBM for entries also. Don't forget to use stops, and don't forget to check earnings/news also, I haven't checked yet.

While there are many terrible looking charts out there right now (the majority of what I looked at this afternoon) I don't see short opps that I feel comfortable with mentioning. I do think HHGP could setup for a trade, but it might take some time.

Good luck Wednesday!

Summer Time and the Liv'in is Easy...

I'm off to Mammoth mountain with my family and friends for a long weekend starting Wednesday 7/18, so I won't be posting anything until after trading on Monday 7/23. Don't get me wrong, I like to post ideas...but hey, fun is calling! A guy has to have his priorities, right?!!

Hopefully you have a great few days of trading while I'm enjoying the mountains in the summertime. If you see a great trade, trade it for me and send the money ;)

Trade Ideas for 7/16/2007

I know, I know...another late Sunday post. Busy, busy, busy.

Ideas for Monday:

AKRX above 7.00
CVTX above 13.15
CYPB above 13.60
EMIS above 4.86
IRIS above 16.55

And if MVIS can get above 5.10 I think it can get going. I squeezed a nice little trade out of this one late Friday :)

I should point out that I see so many bullish charts that, in combination with the market seeming to be extended and with earnings season in full swing early this week, I am skeptical about how good things look.

I haven't checked earnings dates yet, so be sure to do that before you consider a trade. Good luck!

Trade Ideas for 7/13/2007

So WTF was that? Geez. Gap down Tuesday, gap up Thursday to new record levels? I got long lots of GE...and was stopped out just before the real run up. Freaking POS. I had it right...other than the timing. Direction = Easy; Timing = Not Easy.

Here are a few ideas for Friday the 13th. Should we remember that date given what just happened? Heck if I know..

ARGN above 19.60
BIOS above 4.99
CVTX above 13.15
HDY above 3.05
LAVA above 14.35

MWA looks interesting again also.

Trade Ideas for 7/12/2007

Had an OK day, not great, not bad. Lots of volatility out there. Looks like I'll have a pile of short SPX puts expiring worthless next week (I love it when that happens!).

A few ideas for tomorrow (check the news; I haven't yet):

HDY above 3.05
PRXI above 16.90 (looks good; I'm long already)
QCOM above 43.95 (IF...MKT is strong)
SPEC above 17.03 (thin)

Good luck as always.

Trade Ideas for 7/10/2007

While I didn't mention it in yesterday's post, I took off most of my energy plays during the strength yesterday...which turned out to be a good move. Whew!

Things will be a bit more tricky now, but I do have a few ideas for you to take a look at. Just remember that with the volatility in the markets, whipsaw action is more likely. Here are some that I like for Wednesday:

EMIS above 4.94
HDY above 3.02
MWA above 16.50
PRST above 16.31 (there was a fantastic trade in this one today)

On the short side:

RMBS on weakness after a rally to the 18.00 area
ROST on weakness after a rally to the 30.40-30.50 area

Good Luck!

Trade Ideas for 7/10/2007

Aaahhhh! I love it when trades go my way. I had the most excellent trades today in CYPB and HOKU. Nice! By the way, both of those charts still look really good if you can find a low-risk entry point. I know I'll be watching them again tomorrow. I nailed HOKU last Friday also :)

For Tuesday I like:

AATI above 9.90
AKRX above 7.01 (thin)
OMNI above 11.45
OMTR above 22.56
PRST above 8.12

I'm also watching ASYT because it was pointed out on http://squeezeshorts.blogspot.com and looks ready to fly.

Good luck tomorrow!

Trade Ideas for 7/9/2007

The market is probably extended a bit due to the upward movement last week, but that doesn't mean it can't keep moving up. Lots of charts look bullish to me, so here are a handful of long ideas:

COGT above 14.91
DEPO above 4.96
DSTI above 6.30
LAVA above 14.31
LPHI above 35.00 (thin)
OMTR above 22.50

That's probably enough to get interested Monday morning. Good luck!

Trade Ideas for 7/2/2007

Well I procrastinated this weekend and have just finished putting together my watch lists for tomorrow. Rather than just give you a few, today I'm posting my three primary lists in their entirety: Long ideas, Short Ideas, and my B-list ideas. I'm not giving specific entry points today, but generally will on a daily basis. Quite a few of these look good, but I do expect some low volume, choppy trading during this holiday week that precedes the kick off of earnings season.

Good Luck!

Trade Ideas for 6/27/2007

CSUN above 14.00 (sector is flying)
EMIS above 4.52 (even better after pullback to ~4.40)
EMKR above 5.40 (I really like this short-term chart)
MED above 9.20 (don't tell anyone I mentioned a listed stock :)
WIND above 11.03 (this one looks great)

I have some short ideas but after that post-close sell-off in the futures today, I doubt that they will be predictable entries in the morning so I didn't inlcude them...but consider watching HNT and NFLX. Also, be careful of the shakeout if we get it; it looks to me like we could POTENTIALLY get moving to the downside.

Lots of Nice Responses

Well, I have to say I'm happy to see that there are quite a number of people out there checking this blog every day and who are interested in my continuing to post ideas. Without specific feedback like that it's hard to get a feel for whether or not people are actually feeling like they receive actionable ideas from my postings. As it seems that is the case, I'll go ahead and continue posting ideas on a daily basis as I have in the past. Sometimes in setup sheet form, and (if I'm shorter on time) in the form of entering above or below a given price.

While it is effort to post to a blog, I do feel that what goes around comes around and that good karma comes around from time to time when you help others. I'm happy to continue offering up my thoughts on tradable setups and welcome feedback if there is something that comes to mind about the blog, the ideas, or how I may change the way I run the blog. By the way, I have considered doing videos, and may at some point, but it's important to me that I don't just copy-cat Brian at AlphaTrends...that was his original idea as far as I know.

Thoughts welcome, and I'll look forward to continued blogging!

Pause in Posting Ideas

Unless there is enough interest in my ideas to generate some email requests, I plan to stop posting ideas for a while due to time constraints. If there is enough interest in my inbox, I'll continue to post some ideas in some form.

Let me know what you think.

Thoughts for 6/21/2007

The market sold off pretty good today as I'm sure you know. Looking over my lists for tomorrow, I see quite a few POTENTIAL trades but nothing that I feel like warrants being listed here for your consideration. I'll look things over again tomorrow and will probably post some ideas for Friday.

It will be interesting to see where all this goes. Rising 50DMA etc indicates that we're still in a bull market, yes; but...it feels to me like it's possible to get going to the downside and even break the recent lows.

What do I know? Not much! All I can do is watch and see what happens. I'm sure you will do the same!

Trade Candidates for 6/20/2007

ATLS above 55.16 (very thin)
CLNE above 13.75
DEPO above 5.04
IDSA above 16.68

Trade Candidates for 6/19/2007

Okay, okay - no setup sheet again. It's easier for me to give you an entry point and probably better for you to decide how much risk you're willing to take, and thus better for you to determine where your stop should be. My style is to keep stops tight and run for cover quickly when a stock starts to go the wrong way. You may be different; there are many ways to skin a cat...but keep your risk:reward in focus.

A few ideas for Tuesday:

ATLS above 55.16 (SUPER thin)
CMCO above 30.08
MVSN above 30.25
XOMA above 30.42

EXBD below 66.20

Good luck.

Trade Candidates for 6/18/2007

Geez everyone! Sorry for such a late posting this weekend. I did all of my prep work on Saturday morning then got busy with running, barbecuing/entertaining, more running, then father's day stuff like hanging out the the coolest wife and two little boys possible. Oh yea, margaritas made their way into the mix a couple times too ;)...!

Here are a few ideas for tomorrow; no setup sheet as it's late and I don't want to take the time right now. Normal approach again starting tomorrow.

AATI above 9.60 (I'm already long this one)
CYTC above 42.30 (looks GREAT)
NOVC above 10.40 (thin...)
OVTI above 16.19

If you really want a thin one that I like look at CHIP. I'm also long a couple others from Friday: SNDA and TXCC.

Lots of other ideas but that's probably enough for tonight.

Good luck Monday!

Okay - Some Ideas for Thursday 6/14/2007

Well we had a pretty nice up day today - how about that volatility?

Here are a few ideas worth taking a look at for tomorrow - just in case you don't have anything else to focus on :)

CYPB above 14.30
ESEA above 14.85 (very thin and volatile)
MPWR above 17.30 (also thin)
ONT above 2.91
SMTC above 16.57 (I'm long a position in this already, FYI)

I see a bunch of others but these are a good start.

Good Luck!!

No Ideas for Wednesday through Friday

With the volatility in the markets and options/futures expiration on Friday, I won't be posting any more ideas until some time this weekend, and that will be the case only if we see some stabilization in the indexes by the end of the week.

Some Ideas for 6/12/07

No setup sheet today, just a handful of tickers:

AATI above 9.46
AMSC above 17.10
JRJC above 9.12
LPNT above 39.88
NSIT above 21.75

I see so many nice long setups it makes me nervous...

Good luck.

Trade Candidates for 6/11/2007

Volatility is reigning the markets right now, so be careful. I won't be surprised to see a subdued session on Monday due to lack of (scheduled) news and the whipsaw action that many experienced on Thursday and Friday. Options expiration (quadruple no less) on Friday means things may be more volatile and unpredictable than usual at times during the week (although after last week who says it's "predictable" at all?). I'll simply be watching the charts and acting accordingly...with lots of caution.

Have a great Monday!

No Friday Trade Ideas

Well, I can't say I'm surprised at the sell-off, though I am surprised by the magnitude of these moves when they do happen. What's funny (well, actually NOT funny) is that I was shorting the market aggressively on Tuesday and Wednesday but getting stopped out each time. Then I didn't short it today - figures.

Anyway, I'll be watching for a tradable bottom, but that probably won't come right away...so patience is my mantra now.

I'll plan on posting some ideas on the weekend for Monday, but may reconsider after watching what happens tomorrow.

Until then, good luck at whatever you trade.

Trade Candidates for 6/7/2007

Here are a few ideas, although given the sketchy action in the market I would advise using a lot of caution right now. I won't go into a diatribe of what I think (who really cares anyway?) but I do know that it's time to pay a lot attention to what's happening and be defensive. I considered not posting any ideas given the greater volatility and unpredictability in this environment, so take that into consideration if you want to trade these ideas.

Good luck, as always.

Trade Candidates for 6/6/2007

Here are a few ideas for Wednesday. I've been a little bit surprised with the strength of the market over the past couple days, but given what I see all the ideas are on the long side. I'm trying to suspend what I believe (that we are due for an ugly surprise to the downside) and trade what I see (strength).

Good luck.

Trade Candidates for 6/5/2007

A few for Tuesday; good luck!

Trade Candidates for 6/4/2007

Some ideas for Monday. As usual, I see quite a lot of good trade setups out there; given that they're heavily weighted to the long side that does make me think I should pay more attention to the short side! It will be interesting to see if the situation at JFK over the weekend spooks anyone into selling.

Good luck Monday.

Trade Candidates for 6/1/2007

A few for Friday. I won't be surprised if it's a slow trading day, but...with the employment situation report coming out that may not be the case, particularly if there is a surprise. I would generally expect people to do some selling tomorrow to lock in profits and take risk off before the weekend; however, it seems that with all the M&A news it could actually play out differently (people anticipating gains Monday due to deal announcements Monday morning). Who knows? I'll be watching the charts and acting accordingly.

Next post some time on the weekend.

Trade Candidates for 5/31/2007

Here are a few for Thursday. I'm already long CMGI but will probably add to my position above the entry price noted - it looks great to me. If you really want a short idea, watch RMBS - it looks terrible and didn't rally with everything else today. Speaking of today, that sure caught me by surprise. It will be interesting to see if it holds up given that tomorrow is month end and pending what happens in Asia overnight.

As always, good luck!

Trade Candidates for 5/30/2007

A few ideas for Wednesday. SUPG might be a good buy on a breakout above today's high without a pullback - your call of course. On the short side, RMBS just looks ready to croak to me...but that doesn't mean it will; I get surprised a lot (you know: what looks obvious probably isn't...).

I see quite a few other good trade setups, but I'll be watching to see if the markets can find a solid direction over the coming days before I get too excited about any of them; the gap up Friday in combination with the low volume since then does make me a bit more skeptical. But what do I know? Just watch and see what happens.

Good luck Wednesday.

Pre-Holiday Friday

Since tomorrow is a Friday before a holiday weekend, and in addition, one that follows a sell-off like we had today, I doubt that the usual rules will apply as well and thus I don't plan to provide any trade ideas for tomorrow.

I'm not totally surprised at the negative action of the past couple of days; I also doubt that it will be a repeat of late February: there is too much positive momentum to turn around that fast and go down that far. I'm not saying we saw the bottom today (though we may have), however, I am saying that I doubt that we'll see that kind of panic in the short run. Markets that go straight up do have to have some down days, and when they come it seems like the fun is over. Maybe it is, but my money is on looking for a tradable bottom as long as it occurs within the greater uptrend. I'll be watching the reaction to the existing home sales data tomorrow morning - whether good or bad - and developing my trading plan from there. I'll be focused on the broad indexes and related options only unless I happen to find an excellent single stock setup in the next 30 minutes.

Also, I won't be trading Tuesday due to a personal commitment, so I probably won't post trade ideas until late my time on Tuesday for Wednesday trading.

Until then, good luck.

Trade Candidates for 5/24/2007

Here are a few for Thursday. The stop on SHLD is real tight for a stock of this price and volatility - be careful if you go for that one. PESI is still extended and thin, FYI.

Later Gator.

Trade Candidates for 5/23/2007

Here are some setups for Wednesday. Not surprisingly, it was a pretty tepid day today. I think these setups represent good opportunities; note that SUPG is on here again. You may have traded it today as I did but I still think it's a decent setup if it can get some momentum going.

Good luck Wednesday.

Trade Candidates for 5/22/2007

There were some real nice moves in the setups I provided for today - hopefully you guys got some of that action. I didn't trade every one of them, but had a good day overall.

Here are some ideas for Tuesday. I don't trust HANS at all - I've lost money on that homesick POS, but it does potentially look ready to move...potentially. In any event, protect yourself if you trade it. LJPC is in a downtrend on the daily chart, but the weekly looks really nice so that's why I included it. Finally, we might be early here on SUPG but I do like it on strength above $6.50 as noted.

Good luck Tuesday.

Trade Candidates for 5/21/2007

Okay, I'm back at it with a vengence. Here are some ideas for trading on Monday. GIGM reports earnings before the open on Tuesday, so this is a day trade idea only. The market is strong, so I didn't include any short ideas. In addition to these ideas, the Q's look like a potentially nice setup to me - particularly if there is an orderly pullback to the area near the 10-day moving average. That pullback and then strength could be a good setup.

Good luck Monday.

Feeling lazy...

Well, I'm feeling a bit lazy and didn't do much to prepare for Thursday trading. I made a couple bucks a share on some long SPX calls today, and I'm short a pile of SPX puts that should expire worthless Friday morning, so I have some profits and just haven't hit my groove on stocks after returning from vacation the other day. And with expiration on Friday, I won't post any ideas until this weekend for Monday trading. Be sure to check back around Sunday afternoon as I'm sure I'll have posted some ideas by then.

Until Sunday, happy trading and happy expiration (one of my favorite days of the month, by the way!).

I'm Baaccckkk!

Hello everyone, I'm back from the amazing island of Maui after a week of hanging with the coolest wife and two little boys a guy could have and drinking more $10 Mai Tai's than I'll admit to! If you haven't been to the West Maui area (Ka'anapali Beach) I highly recommend it. Maybe you should treat yourself after your next home run trade...

I've reviewed some charts this afternoon but haven't hit it full speed yet. With options expiration on Friday and my time away, I'm going to take it slow until I get a feel for how things are trading. There's definitely been some volume on the sell side, but expiration weeks during bull phases tend to show strength late in the week, so I'll be keeping that in mind.

Here are a few ideas for tomorrow:

BCSI above 38.20
BIOS above 4.28
GLUU above 13.80

On the short side I missed EQIX today but I like it on weakness after a rally back up to around 80.00 or so.

Beyond that, I'm watching these on the long side also: ARGN, MOLX, NAFC, and TALX. Each of these four have nice chart patterns if they can get going to the upside.

As always, good luck!

On Vacation

I'll be hanging out on Maui until May 15th (he! he!), so there won't be any new posts until the evening if the 15th. I considered taking my laptop and doing some trading, but that's what I do every day, so decided to take a break and a fresh look when I get back.

Until then, Good Luck!

Some Ideas for Friday 5/4/2007

It's late so I haven't done a formal setup sheet. Instead, here are a few ideas and the price above which I would consider buying them for a short-term trade:

DYAX above 4.71
IOTN above 5.95
QTWW above 1.44
SPEC above 14.00

Good luck Friday and have a great weekend!

Will Post Late This Evening

I'll post a few ideas later this evening west coast time, as I have a full afternoon.

No Post Tonight

I'm taking the day off of trading tomorrow, so I won't be posting ideas tonight.

Trade Candidates for 5/2/2007

Here are some ideas for Wednesday. Please note that AVNC is a very thin stock (and I'm long a small position already) so be careful about the lack of liquidity if you trade it. CRIS reports earnings before the open tomorrow, so I don't know what impact that will have, so be very careful there as well.

Good luck as always.

No Post Tonight

Due to schedule constraints I won't be posting trade ideas this evening. It has nothing to do with this afternoon's selloff in the markets; however, due to that I think that trading tomorrow will be volatile and dicey so it's probably a good day to be very careful anyway.

Trade Candidates for 4/30/2007

Here are some setups for Monday. Notice that I have ACUS on the sheet again, as I did Friday, and Brian Shannon at AlphaTrends has it on his list also. If you find a stock here and on Brian's list the same day, be sure to watch it!

I have quite a few other trade ideas, but I'm sticking with the consensus among readers that a few ideas is best. Good luck Monday!

Trade Candidates for 4/27/2007

Here are a few for Friday, good luck, I hope you were all long a bunch of calls in BIDU going into today's close! (I wasn't, unfortunately). There were however some great moves in the setups I listed for today - hopefully some of you traded those moves successfully.

Have a great Friday!

Trade Candidates for 4/26/2007

As you can see from the time of this post, it's late and I am just out of time to do a more comprehensive setup sheet. If I have time in the morning I will formalize some setups in a setup sheet; however, here are a few tickers that you can take a look at to consider a trade on Thursday:

Long:

CLRT
FALC
GTW
INTV
VCLK

Short:

GVHR

Sorry about the lack of detailed setup info tonight, but I will typically provide that within 2 or 3 hours after the market closes. My schedule today prevented my usual post-market-close routine.

Good luck on Thursday!

EXBD Tanks...

I've been watching this stock and trying to catch it short for a while now. I'm not surprised to see that it took a catalyst like missing earnings to finally get it to break to the downside. In my view it's crazy to hold a stock going into an earnings announcement, but playing something like this with options can make sense. I didn't do that, but given that I've posted short setups on this stock recently I thought it would be worthwhile to point out what happened and how it could have been traded.

Trade Candidates for 4/25/2007

There is a clear preference among readers of this blog that it's more helpful to see a handful of trade setups with entry, stop and target points in lieu of just seeing a laundry list of potential trade candidates without some input on my part on how it might make sense to trade them. So, that's what I will plan on providing. Here are some setups for Wednesday.

Good Luck!

Watch Lists for 4/24/2007

I'm going to try something new today and see if I get any feedback from my readers. Here are my trade watch lists for Tuesday - meaning my "A" lists but excluding my "B" list (including the B-list would simply result in way too many stocks to reasonably post). I have not provided a setup sheet (yet) and may do so later this evening. However, I'm out of time right now so I thought I would provide these lists and try to get a feel for if there is a preference for this approach or the more limited, but more detailed, setup sheet approach.

Feedback is welcome!

Trade Candidates for 4/23/2007

Here are some ideas for Monday. I see quite a few POTENTIAL opportunities on both the long and short side of the market. The market has been amazingly strong, and may continue to be, but it also seems extended at this time and if we get some downward movement it will likely start tripping people's stops and accelerate a bit. I'll be watching closely to see what develops and trade in the direction of the very short term trend.

Good luck Monday!

Some Ideas for Thursday

Here are a few tickers to take a look at; I didn't do a setup sheet so you'll have to consider entries, stops and targets on your own:

ADBE
AMAG
ASTI
CSIQ
DNDN
EPIX
JASO
LMRA
USAT (extremely thin)

These are in addition to my overlap w/ Brian at AlphaTrends - which include the following:

ADTN
CSIQ
HANS
IACI
SOLF
USEG

Good Luck!

Maybe No Setups Until Monday...

I may post a few ideas for Thursday trading later tonight, but if I don't have time (tight schedule this afternoon/evening) I may not post ideas until some time on the weekend for Monday trading. Since Friday is options expiration, I will spend most of tomorrow focused on my short term SPX option strategy and (if I am prepared) on just a few stock trade ideas. I never (OK, rarely...) trade on expiration Fridays because things just aren't as predictable and thus I won't post ideas for Friday.

If you have time check back late tonight or early tomorrow to see if I have some Thursday trade setups.

Trade Candidates for 4/18/2007

A few for Wednesday. We typically get an unexpected move some time during the final week prior to options expiration...and the market feels like it's extended right now. Time to be careful.

One other little stock I didn't mention but which looks great and I have a small long position in is VIAC. Might be worth a look but it's a thin one so caution is warranted.

Here they are...

Trade Candidates for 4/17/2007

I'm running short on time this afternoon and haven't finished my setup sheet yet. I'll post some ideas as usual, but not until later my time so it'll be pretty late everywhere else. In the mean time, here are a few tickers from my A-list to take a look at (all longs):

ASTM
AVCI
CELG
CYTR
DITC
DIVX

I'll probably list these on the blog setup sheet later - I really like all of these!

Will Post Later Today

Probably around 8pm EDT.

Trade Candidates for 4/16/2007

Here you go - hope you guys like these. I do - and also quite a few others I have on my complete setup sheet. Good luck Monday!

Trade Candidates for 4/13/2007

Here are a few for Friday. I'm sure everyone will be interested in how the PPI reading looks. Buckle up, just in case.

In addition to this setup list, I'm also (as usual) watching quite a number of stocks. Of those watch lists, I really like the potential of the following few: LJPC; LKQX; MAMA; SIGA and SONS. As always, be careful! By the way, I'm currently long ALVR, NVTL, and NXTM.

Happy Friday the 13th!

Trade Candidates for 4/12/2007

Sorry for the late post today, I was busy this afternoon. Be sure to check news and earnings on any trades you do; it's earnings season now.

Trade Candidates for 4/11/2007

We had a couple more nice moves today (FOSL, NTLS). The pullback in NTLS was one penny short of what I was looking for, but if you're paying attention you can still find and enter a good trade in a situation like that.

Again, I have quite a few good candidates but posted a few here that seem tradable. I still like LMRA, NVTL, and (I don't think I've mentioned it before) NXTM - but this one is very thin - careful.

It should be fun to see how everyone likes or dislikes the Fed minutes this time around. Good luck tomorrow.

Will Post Later Tonight

It's 80 and beautiful here today. I'm going for a run and will post ideas later this evening.

Trade Candidates for 4/10/2007

So did any of you get that excellent move in ITRI from Thursday or the move in DITC today? Very nice! I hope some people were able to participate. I was able to get a piece of both.

The market sold off near the end of the day and may be in for some sideways/consolidation action, if not a pullback (I always think that after a gap up like we had on Tuesday morning...particularly since it's around the area that the primary moving averages are clustering on the daily chart). Here are a few setups that may work, so it may be worth your time to take a look. Also, I am watching EXBD for a short entry, but I excluded it from the list above - FYI.

Trade Candidates for 4/9/2007

Trade Ideas for Monday

I'll post some trade setup ideas for Monday either tomorrow or some time on the weekend depending on how my schedule turns out. In the mean time, enjoy the extra day off of trading with the markets closed tomorrow.

My Trade Candidates for 4/5/2007

One of the things that bugs me about trading is when I think a setup looks nice, I enter, then immediately get stopped out. That was the scenario today on ABAX; however, I still think it potentially looks good on strength above today's high. There may also still be hope on SONS (I'm still long) but the pressure on yesterday's gap up isn't making me feel good about it. We'll see. There was no entry on ADLR but I still like it so it's on today's setup sheet also. The weekly chart is in a downtrend however, so tread carefully.

I really like the RMBS chart (in fact I traded it today and exited) and if it can get going above today's highs it appears to me it could potentially put in a good run. ITRI has potential I think, but it's going to have to convince me.

I won't be surprised if tomorrow is traded defensively by most traders given the holiday on Friday and the employment report that comes out that day. So, whatever I do I will be careful as the follow through may not be there.

My Trade Candidates for 4/4/2007

Okay, so we got that move above 43.85 in the Q's! The problem is, I don't like to buy after a gap up, so I day traded and made a little bit in the Q's today. Typically, there will be another chance to go long in a big way...if we're paying close enough attention. Be patient.

Two of today's three longs didn't get a pullback as I was looking for on the setup sheet. Fortunately, I was still long a partial position in GIGM from yesterday. SONE gave an entry and then sold off. Notice the sell off and recovery on March 30, then the run up and sell off today. Big battle going on in this one. ALL didn't give us an entry either, and the market is strong so shorting may not be the right strategy right now, but it does still look vulnerable to me.

Again, I have a pile of potential setups, but I've provided a few for Wednesday that seem tradable. Note that SONS (not SONE) might be good for an entry above today's high, but I'm looking for a pullback before entering to lower the risk if I trade it. Hopefully these turn out to be winners, but remember: good traders can make money on a bad idea and bad traders can lose money on a good idea...so it all comes down to you and how well you execute and manage your trades.

Have a great Wednesday!

My Trade Candidates for 4/3/2007

Here are a few setups for Tuesday. I actually had all three of these longs on my watch lists today, and did trade GIGM (still long a partial position). I have a pile of stocks like this that are potential trades but they will need to set up correctly in order to have the right risk:reward relationship. I tried to provide a few here that seem simple enough to anticipate an entry. I think ALL is setting up for a nice short, but it is listed so be careful, and see my comment on the markets below - trading short might not be the thing to do if the markets can get moving upward.

Since the markets can't seem to break down and it looks as though we may be consolidating under the 50dma's in the Q's and SPY, I'll be watching carefully for a break above the recent highs - particularly around 43.85 or so in the Q's. If we can break that level with some conviction, I'll be getting long for a ride up to 45.00 or so.

Have a great Tuesday!

Today's Trade Ideas

There were a couple nice trades today from the setup sheet I posted yesterday. IMMR and MOGN resulted in very nice trades, and there was an entry on CROX but it hasn't followed through...yet. No entry on ACLS as it didn't reach our entry level after the pullback.

I had a good day today, and my SPX options are showing nice profits as well. I'll post some trade ideas for tomorrow in just a little while. I hope your trading went well today!

My Trade Candidates for 4/2/2007

Here are a few setups for Monday. I've trimmed the list down quite a bit today for a couple reasons: first, because I think it becomes overwhelming and hard to focus on a few good candidates when the list has too many symbols, and secondly, I'm trying not to keep repeating ideas on stocks that have been posted in the last few days. As I noted in a previous post, often times what I post on a given day doesn't develop into a tradable setup; however, I continue to watch those stocks and they sometimes do develop into a good setup in the ensuing days. So, rather than repeating the same ideas day after day, I'm going to try to provide new ideas each day, but fewer of them, and you can consider watching the stocks that I posted an idea on previously. That doesn't mean I won't ever post an idea on the same stock on consecutive days, I'm just generally trying to avoid that. Similarly, Brian Shannon and I often have overlapping ideas on the same day, and I am trying not to post an idea on a stock that he's mentioned recently (again, I can't guarantee I won't, but I'm trying not to overlap).

Have a great Monday!

Reader Question: Four Symbols

Here is a recent exchange with one of my readers that I thought you may be interested in. All four of these stocks look like they could set up nice some time in the coming week or so.

Hi John,
Keep up the good work at your blog. I have been a visitor of your blog for a week now and i find it informative. I would like to seek your comments on ONT, CMGI , LMRA and PMCS please ( if you may have time to spare). I would appreciate your feedback.
Thank You. Have a good weekend.
Regards,Prasana

Hi Prasanna,

I took a quick look that those four symbols; here are my quick views on them:
CMGI:
It's in a nice uptrend on both the weekly and daily timeframes; however, there was qite a sell off on Friday on high volume. With a day or two of consolidation this stock could set up for a nice long entry. Based on the monthly chart, there is potentially lots and lots of room for the stock to run; the key will be to watch for a low-risk entry point over the coming week or so.
LMRA:
I've been trading this stock recently, and while it's in a short-term pullback pattern, it (like CMGI) is generally in a bullish uptrend. I will watch for the gap on the morning of 3/28 to get filled and then will watch for an entry on strength above whatever the consolidation level above ~$5.00 is. I like this stock a lot on strength after it closes that gap.
ONT:
I have traded this one recently as well; like the two above it's also in a nice uptrend. Since it's listed rather than NASDAQ I'm always more skeptical, but it does look like it could setup nice above the 1.62-1.64 level. I would like it a lot of it went another day or two consolidating on the short term chart and then broke that level. Again, lots of room on the monthly chart.
PMCS:
While this one also potentially looks good it's my least favorite of the four. I didn't check the news but it gapped up on Friday so I would be skeptical of any entry until it either consolidates those gains or (better yet) goes and closes that gap first. The weekly chart looks like it's in the process of ending a long downtrend, so I would be more suspect of this stock until both the daily and weekly charts truly turn upward. I would then look for a low risk entry point.

All four of these stocks have very nice volume patters, which is very important in combination with price patterns. I think, in general, you are looking at the right stocks for long entries; the key will be waiting until you find a low-risk entry point on each one.

Good luck!

John

My Trade Candidates for 3/30/2007

Tomorrow is Friday and the end of the month, so it's hard to say what kind of day we'll have. After that drop and recovery today, I'm inclined to think we're going to have a choppy day - we'll see. These setups actually look pretty nice on the long side (be sure to check levels of support and resistance to see if you like my entry and stop levels). I don't have any outstanding short candidates today.

Nice Moves Today

We had some really nice moves today - both long and short - in the trade candidate list! Nice volatility. On the long side, FRPT was a home run, Q gave you a chance if you managed your stops well, and SUPG is on it's way and looks great so far. I got FRPT and I'm still in SUPG. On the short side, both MATK and SLXP broke down nicely; I hope you guys got some of that too!

I'll post my trade setups for tomorrow in a while after I have a chance to do some work.

At some time in the near future, I'll do a post on how I trade short SPX options. Today was a great day for part of what I do because there was a shakeout and as the market recovered, it looks like VIX put in a peak which is part of what I look for when shorting SPX puts. More later when I have a chance to do a more comprehensive post.

Recent Links to Apex Trader

How about a big 'THANK YOU!" to the following sites who recently linked to Apex Trader! Be sure to take a look a them when you have a minute:
Alpha Trends
Dr. Brett Steenbarger Weblog
TradingGoddess
Get Short!

My Trade Candidates for 3/29/07

Well we had a pretty decent pullback today on more than light volume. I'm not really trying to do broad market commentary because Brian (and some others) do such a good job at that. It would suffice to say that the market is mixed and in a risky stage at this point, so whatever you decide to do, be careful!

There are potential opportunities on both the long and short side of the market, and I have tried to provide a relatively short list of decent candidates. I also have quite a few others I'm watching, many of which have been included in recent posts. A handful I'm particularly interested in are: APAC, MAMA, FIRE, LMRA, and LWSN on the long side. I'm also keeping an eye on CROX, IDCC, NATI and NEWP on the short side (I'm currently short NEWP).

Finally, one of my favorites perked up recently and may be setting up for a quick trade: ISIS. However, if you consider trading this one be very, very careful - do you see all the gaps on the daily chart? That means it can surprise you - in either direction.

This is why Stops Are Important!

I knew yesterday that something was up with APAC - look at the volume that traded yesterday - very high. Interestingly, most of it came late it the day. The chart looks bullish (I still think so) but when you see that kind of volume you never know for sure if it's good news or bad news. So far it looks like it meant bad news in this case, but maybe not: this morning's dip may have been a shakeout before moving higher (we'll have to wait and see). What is for sure is that this is a good example of what can (and often does) happen in thin stocks. They can move very quickly! That's why I point out that you need to be careful if you trade thin stocks.

I entered this stock today based on my setup sheet (just above 4.75) and put my stop at 4.68. Thin stocks like this can move far and fast against you, so while your fill on a stop may slip from your intended price, this shows why it's so important to use stops. I lost, but I didn't lose very much. That is the discipline of trading: keep your losses small and let your winners run.

My Trade Candidates for 3/28/2007

Here are some setups for Wednesday. Got a nice move today out of LMRA; looking for re-entry on pullback as noted above; I may regret not leaving it on as it finished very strong.

In addition to the setups above, consider taking a look at the following (some are pretty thin - be sure to check what kind of volume they trade): LJPC, SIGA, ADLR, HLTH (I'm still prowling on these, waiting for the right entry - you've probably seen them in posts of recent days) as well as TALX, ZUMZ and GLUU. On the short side, I watched IDCC for what seemed like forever for a break down and it looks like it might have finally started today. I'll be watching for a rally back up and a short entry if conditions seem right for it. NATI, my short from yesterday, can't seem to decide where it's going, but it does look like a stock that's ready to tank - we'll see.

I should point out that while I post a certain set of stocks as potential setups for the following day, they often don't move as anticipated and the entry doesn't develop that day. However, I keep many of those on my watch lists for the following days and they often do develop into a tradable entry - either along the lines that I originally anticipated or a bit different based on how the stock trades in the interim period. So, if it seems like there is quite a bit of overlap on symbols from day to day, it's because there often is until a good entry develops.

My Trade Candidates for 3/27/2007

Well there was certainly some volatility today, which in the end looks like some nice consolidation. The fact that the market recovered so well after that initial sell off tells me that we're probably not going to completely cave in - at least any time real soon.


Here are some trade setups for tomorrow. I have lots and lots of thin, low-priced stocks that look potentially ready for a move up; however, I've limited the list today to six candidates to keep it manageable. Of these, ESST and FIRE are pretty thin. I'm currently long some LWSN (and EVC as well) after getting shaken out initially this morning. No short setups today as the bias seems upward; I was short NATI most of the day and given that it didn't break down (and traded pretty high volume again without downward movement), I covered.


If you want a few more to keep your eye on, here are some to take a look at, but remember: many of these are thin and volatile: HOKU, HRSH, JAV (very thin), LJPC, SIGA.

If you have a minute take a look at JSDA and SMSI. Both were on my "B" list today and I missed them!

My Trade Candidates for 3/26/2007

About this BLOG

WHO?

I am an independent, full-time trader of stocks, futures and options. I trade my own accounts, no one else’s; I don’t manage money nor do I provide any kind of investment advice. I don’t charge anyone for anything because I don’t provide services of any kind. I do REAL TRADES, with REAL MONEY, every day. I earn my living the hard way: by grinding out profitable trades based on hard work, commitment, and a passion for trading. It’s that simple (but not easy).

WHAT?

This blog is my way of sharing my views on stock trading, the market, and (if I feel inclined) on life. Blogging has become an excellent way to communicate and share with others who share similar interests and who may be able to help each other in our endeavors. I will generally post my ACTUAL TRADE SETUPS in a grid format for anyone to review as educational and idea generating tool. I may also post certain other ideas or observations from time to time.

WHEN?

In general, I will post my trade setups for the following day some time within a few hours after the market closes. As an example, I will generally post Tuesday’s trade setups some time Monday afternoon. Of course there will be exceptions to this, but that will be the general approach. If there is not a post within a few hours after the market close, check back later in the evening or early the next morning.

WHERE?

Right here! Consider adding http://www.apextrader.blogspot.com/ to your favorites list.

WHY?

Why would I go to all this trouble? Because I think it helps me to help others: by formalizing my trade ideas and making them visible to other traders, I expect to become a better trader myself and to learn from others who look at my trade ideas.

DISCLAIMER AND WORD OF CAUTION…

This blog is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not providing investment advice, and I am not making trade recommendations. I am sharing my own personal views on trading and providing one person’s perspective on potential trade opportunities. That doesn’t mean you should trade them. If you trade, you are always responsible for your own trades and your own trade ideas. Some of the stocks I trade can be very volatile and thinly traded (illiquid). Trading involves risk, so if you trade you should be sure you understand what you are doing.

My Trade Candidates for 3/23/2007

Lesson of the Day

There is a reason that good traders teach and preach the importance of TREND ALIGNMENT across the timeframes relevant to your trade. Yesterday, in the excitement of a runaway market with FED euphoria, I went long ICE on strength above the highs made earlier in the day, anticipating a reversal of the downtrend so clear on the daily timeframe. The stock appeared to hold support at the 10dma, and looked headed upward. However, ICE sold off (on high volume) on the short term chart yesterday afternoon, foretelling today's selloff and reminding me that one should never hold a long position in a downtrending stock - and if you decide to anyway - don't trust it. That is doubly true if it's a listed stock. Another post-it reminder will have to be added to those already hanging on my monitors...

I expect tomorrow to be a slow day in the markets given the lack of data beyond Existing Home Sales data and the fact that it's Friday following the action we've seen this week. I probably won't trade, but will flip through some charts later this evening and if I find something really interesting I'll post it tonight. (One decent looking short opportunity however that caught my eye is WFMI.)

My Trade Candidates for 3/22/2007

So, one of the frustrating aspects of trading is when you make a good call on an entry then get shaken out before the real move in the direction you were expecting to happen. Well, that happened to me in spades today, unfortunately. However, there is no point in complaining so here are some trade set-ups for tomorrow.

In addition to these, I will be paying attention to the following: ASCA, BOOM, EVVV, FOSL, FSLR, NTES (counter trend - be careful); ONXX, PENN, SNCI, UHCO.

I think we found their stops

Based on the violent upside response to the FED statement, I think we found out where a lot of the shorts' stops were. Now things should really get interesting! I'll post my trade candidates in an hour or so.

My Trade Candidates for 3/21/2007

Disclaimers first: I'm currently long ASCA and HLIT which were included in the 3/20/07 setup sheet below, and are included above as well. I may add to my ASCA position above the entry price stated above depending on how the overall sector is looking. You may have noticed that BYD had a huge up day today, so I am paying special attention to the gaming sector. Other candidates in that space with charts that interest me are PENN and MPEL, and to a lesser extent, PGIC. MPEL is a counter trend trade but appears like it may be ready to turn up with the strength in the sector.

I should also point out that FFHL is a counter-trend trade and therefore is probably higher risk than a trend-following setup, but this stock put in an outside day up today and appears to be ready to turn up. Like MPEL it's a recently public stock and may be ready to find it's legs.

A few others I'm keeping any eye on: BOOM, ECGI, HLTH, IFSIA, NYMX, ONXX and SNCI.

My Trade Candidates for 3/20/2007

Here are my trade candidates for Tuesday. There are several longs, but no shorts as I don't see any good short candidates today. For the time being I am including all potential trade candidates, but in the future I may limit the lists to 3-5 tickers each in order to prevent the lists from being unreasonably long. Feedback on whether or not I should limit the lists is welcome, of course!

Beginning today I am also including my watch list which consists of stocks that are not ready for a low-risk entry but which appear close. I monitor this list of stocks throughout the day and when a given stock appears ready for a potential trade, I move it over to the appropriate primary list (long or short, as the case may be).

Here is the watch list:

ACLS

BBND

BOOM

BPA

BRKR

EHTH

ESST

FCSX

FLSR

INFS

MAMA

MICC

MOGN

ONXX

SLGN

XFML

My Trade Candidates for 3/19/2007